Message from Afghanistan

In a significant development for regional peace and security, a senior commander of the Afghan Taliban, Saeedullah Saeed, has issued a strong warning to militants seeking to attack Pakistan, declaring that fighting against the Pakistani state under the guise of jihad is illegitimate and a violation of the directives issued by the Taliban leadership. Addressing police cadets at a passing-out ceremony, the commander stated unequivocally that any such act of defiance would amount to disobedience of the Taliban’s Ameer. This public declaration, coming from within the Taliban ranks, carries weight and must not be underestimated. For years, Pakistan has called on the Afghan Taliban regime to take decisive action against the TTP and its affiliates, who have taken refuge in Afghanistan and used Afghan soil to orchestrate deadly attacks on Pakistani soil. Until now, those calls were largely met with silence, evasiveness or worse – informal pressure on Pakistan to negotiate with these very terrorists, despite their record of bloodshed and mayhem.

This latest statement marks a potential turning point. Defence and regional analysts are interpreting it as vindication of Pakistan’s long-standing position that its internal security challenges are in large part tied to the presence and support of militants operating from Afghan soil, some reportedly abetted by hostile foreign actors. Importantly, this development comes on the heels of a trilateral meeting in China between Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Afghanistan’s Acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi. The timing suggests a coordinated diplomatic effort to de-escalate tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan and revive cooperation based on mutual trust and security. But words alone are not enough. Pakistan has already paid a steep price for past miscalculations, especially the ill-advised ‘confidence-building measures’ of 2022–2023, which included the release of dangerous militants and the return of fighters under the mistaken belief that they could be reintegrated. That experiment proved disastrous, with a sharp uptick in terrorist attacks across the country.

Pakistan has always stood by Afghanistan, bearing the humanitarian and economic burdens of millions of Afghan refugees for decades. After the Afghan Taliban’s return to power in August 2021, Pakistan hoped for a government in Kabul that would cooperate to maintain regional stability. Instead, it saw an emboldened TTP and rising insecurity at home. The patience of the Pakistani state wore thin, especially when it became clear that the TTP continued to operate freely across the border. While the recent statement by Commander Saeed may be the first real sign of willingness on the part of the Taliban to rein in these militants, it must be followed by credible and verifiable action. The TTP’s sanctuaries must be dismantled, and there must be no tolerance for groups that seek to wage war against a sovereign neighbour. At the same time, Afghanistan’s internal direction also needs to evolve. The Taliban cannot expect legitimacy at home or abroad while continuing to deny girls the right to education and women the right to work. A peaceful, stable region requires not just the absence of war but the presence of justice, equality and opportunity. The Taliban leadership must realise that they are now the state – and with that comes the responsibility to govern in a manner that allows their people and their neighbours to live in peace. China’s efforts to mediate and encourage dialogue are welcome, but it is ultimately up to Kabul and Islamabad to rebuild the trust that once defined their relationship.