News Analysis: How Pakistan can thwart India’s Chenab moves

LAHORE: By meddling with the flows of transboundary Chenab River, India has opened a new front in its longstanding water feud with lower-riparian Pakistan, posing a systematic and direct threat to the country’s water security.

However, it is the inaction of our policymakers—particularly regarding the development of critical water infrastructure—that has left Pakistan vulnerable to such manipulations by the extremist Modi-led government.

India’s existing infrastructure on the Chenab River would have had little real impact on downstream flows had Pakistan constructed two long-proposed but neglected projects: the Mangla-Marala Link Canal and the Chiniot Dam. Both are crucial for managing and stabilizing river flows in the face of upstream interference.

The proposed Mangla-Marala Canal, with a capacity of 10,000 cusecs, could have offset the reduction in Chenab inflows by supplementing supplies from Pakistan’s largest reservoir—Mangla Dam—directly feeding the Marala Headworks as the Chenab enters Pakistan from Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJ&K).

This 10,000-cusecs water supply is considered sufficient for operating a network of defence canals along the international border from Sialkot to Bahawalnagar. This network would have served as a perennial first line of defence in the plains of Punjab, directly confronting any hostile designs.

Moreover, even during Indian attempts to disrupt flows, enough water would still be available via the Chenab to sustain irrigation in the canal command areas. As the river flows deeper into Punjab, water diverted through Khanki and Qadirabad Headworks can be regulated. The proposed Chiniot Dam—designed to store around one million acre-feet of water—would help stabilize supplies during such disruptions.

If constructed, the Chiniot Dam would mitigate the impact of upstream tampering, rendering any significant manipulation of Chenab flows by India largely ineffective. Despite its critical strategic value, the Chiniot Dam remains stuck in the proposal phase with no firm construction timeline. Planned as a 60-foot-high zoned earth-fill embankment dam, it is intended to store surplus flows and balance downstream supply.

The delay in launching its construction is a matter best explained by policymakers. The dam’s completion would likely yield substantial benefits for national water and food security. Failure to act, however, could threaten the livelihoods of farmers, accelerate groundwater depletion, and worsen water quality in brackish zones stretching from Faisalabad to Pakpattan.

The Chiniot Dam was first proposed in a 1967 World Bank report on expanding water resources, which recommended storing surplus Chenab flows to regulate monthly canal distributions. Yet, the project has remained unrealized for over five decades.

In 2017, the outgoing PMLN government initiated a pre-feasibility study, and the PTI government continued preliminary work, albeit slowly. A senior official stated that the detailed engineering design, PC-1, and tender documents are expected to be finalized by the end of this financial year. If adequate funding and government support continue, the dam could become operational within three years.

Unfortunately, the official had no update on the Mangla-Marala Link Canal. It is feared that this vital project may not materialize even in the next decade. Proposed by the Indus Waters Commission in 2009 during the PPP government in response to upstream Indian projects like Baglihar, the canal remains unrealized. Commenting on the lack of progress on these critical projects, sources urged the government to declare them strategically important and expedite their construction. They argue that such fundamental infrastructure would render India’s attempts to manipulate Chenab flows largely insignificant.