IMF, remittances key to Pakistan’s outlook: Standard Chartered

KARACHI: Standard Chartered Pakistan has maintained a 3.0 per cent economic growth forecast for the country for FY25, citing IMF loans and strong worker remittances as key factors supporting the country’s improving macroeconomic outlook.

“We expect economic growth to pick up in the last two quarters of the current fiscal year (ending in June), driven by the combined effect of 1,000bps of monetary easing over the past months and rapidly declining inflation,” Farooq Pasha, country economist at Standard Chartered Pakistan, said at an event in Islamabad.

“High-frequency economic activity indicators are also supporting the thesis of a gradual domestic demand recovery. Furthermore, strong growth in worker remittances will likely have a positive impact on private consumption and domestic demand revival,” Pasha said.

“In a challenging global economic backdrop, on-track IMF facilities [Extended Fund Facility and Resilience and Sustainability Facility] and robust worker remittances are likely to anchor Pakistan’s improving macroeconomic outlook in H2 and beyond -- we maintain our economic growth forecast of 3.0 per cent for FY25,” he added.

Manpreet Gill, chief investment officer of Africa, Middle East and Europe (AMEE) at Standard Chartered, joined the talk virtually and said that the pause in US tariffs after a market rout suggests the US Administration realises the limitations of an aggressive trade policy and that the US will eventually strike trade deals with major partners, helping stabilise the economy, risk assets and the US dollar.

Saadya Riaz, head of wealth and retail banking at Standard Chartered Pakistan, said, “As global markets continue to evolve amidst geopolitical shifts, inflationary pressures and changing interest rate cycles, our clients are increasingly looking for clarity and confidence in their investment decisions. Through our Market Outlook event, we aim to equip them with timely insights, global research, and local context, helping them navigate complexity and identify opportunities.”

The discussion, moderated by Murtaza Hasan, head of investment advisory at Standard Chartered Pakistan, shed light on the macroeconomic outlook against the backdrop of global developments, wealth planning through efficient and diversified solutions, and the need for protection solutions in client portfolios.