Dreaming of sanity amidst hysteria

The Pahalgam attack in Occupied Kashmir has prompted war-mongers in the region to spring into action and incite war hysteria. Anti-Pakistan sentiments are running high in several parts of India, with goons from right-wing Hindu extremist outfits attacking Muslims, Kashmiri students in particular. Some zealots have vowed to kill at least 2,600 Muslims to avenge the deaths of the 26 Indian citizens.

The Indian government is also employing the coercive apparatus of the state to suppress Kashmiris, raiding the homes of hundreds of suspected rebel supporters and arresting more than 1,500 Kashmiris since the attack.

The BJP-led government is particularly furious because the Indian prime minister had claimed to have created a ‘new Kashmir’ last September, vowing to turn the disputed region into a hub for tourism. Modi’s government seems to have based its claims on the large influx of tourists. This highly militarised zone, among the most heavily fortified in the world, attracted only a meagre 0.4 million tourists in 2020, but over the years, tourism witnessed a phenomenal surge, with 3.5 million visiting the area in 2024. However, the Pahalgam attack has shattered the myth that everything is hunky-dory in Occupied Kashmir, where the BJP has established the silence of a graveyard by crushing all dissenting voices and breaking all promises made by former Indian prime ministers or top leaders of the country.

Instead of blaming Pakistan for everything that happens in the occupied territory, many believe that the so-called largest democracy needs to carry out some introspection. If Kashmir is in turmoil because of Pakistani infiltration, then how is the strife in other parts of the country to be explained? Around 11,841 people have been killed in the Maoist insurgency since 2000 – an insurgency that many critics assert has nothing to do with Islamabad. The movement has been raging across hundreds of districts since the 1960s, and there is little chance it will dissipate anytime soon. The north-eastern states of India have also been smouldering for decades, while the inhuman treatment meted out to Dalits by Indian society continues to make the people at the bottom of the social hierarchy deeply resentful toward Indian democracy.

It is true that the Pakistani state had supported Kashmiri militants in the past, but the construction of fencing along the borders has made infiltration virtually impossible. If the claim of infiltration is accepted as fact, it raises serious questions about the effectiveness of the security measures the Indian state has put in place over the years. Even in that case, the first course of action should be to hold accountable those whose negligence led to the security lapse.

However, instead of holding anyone accountable, the Indian state appears to be using this unfortunate incident to rally support for its communal agenda just months before elections in Bihar state. It has already suspended the Indus Waters Treaty and reduced the size of the Pakistani diplomatic staff. And it is not only the Indian government that is fueling anti-Muslim hysteria; Indian society at large also appears to be embracing this narrative of hate. It seems no sane voice can prevail against the storm of war-mongering brewing in the region.

The desire for conflict is also gripping the minds of some in Pakistan who assert that the country can teach India a harsh lesson in the event of war. But in reality, there are no winners in modern warfare, especially one fought between two nuclear powers. What the ruling elites in both countries must remember is that a war between the two South Asian rivals would not remain confined to conventional means. It would almost certainly escalate into a nuclear armageddon, triggering a nuclear winter and potentially killing over two billion people across the globe.

This tension is intensifying at a time when the world appears to be without a clear hegemon. The US is embroiled in a trade war with both allies and adversaries. The world’s leading power seems to be slipping into the abyss of isolationism. It is prepared to allow the flames of war in Ukraine to die out in pursuit of mineral wealth, but Trump and his tedious acolytes show little interest in resolving the long-standing issue of Kashmir.

The recent statement by President Trump, asserting that Pakistan and India would sort out the issue themselves, reflects his lack of seriousness toward the situation. Even though the armies of the two nuclear-armed neighbours have exchanged gunfire in recent days along their disputed border, Washington has yet to make any concrete efforts to douse the flames of a possible war. It also appears to have ignored the reckless Indian decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty, a decision that prima facie constitutes a blatant violation of international norms and traditions.

Pakistan has made it very clear that the abrogation of the treaty would amount to an act of aggression. The water of the Indus River is a lifeline for the people of Pakistan. Not only is Pakistani agriculture heavily dependent on it, but the very survival of the country hinges on the uninterrupted flow of this water. It is entirely natural that the country would react furiously if this lifeline were suspended or blocked.

However, it is not only Pakistan that would suffer in the event of a conflict. The catastrophic consequences would not spare India either. Any potential conflict would significantly slow Indian economic growth and create panic among investors. The so-called largest democracy has attracted over a trillion dollars in foreign direct investment since 2000. All of this could be jeopardised in the event of war.

Therefore, both countries need to de-escalate. Severing channels of communication could lead to grave misunderstandings. India and Pakistan must reconsider their decisions to reduce diplomatic staff. New Delhi should also provide assurances that it does not intend to undermine the water treaty. Such an assurance could go some way toward alleviating fears that India is planning to disrupt Pakistan’s lifeline.

Islamabad has already extended an offer of cooperation, asking New Delhi to present any evidence indicating Pakistan’s involvement. If India truly possesses concrete evidence, it should share it. If it is unwilling to do so with Islamabad directly, it can engage countries such as Russia, Saudi Arabia, Brazil or South Africa, which may serve as effective mediators.

The US, which has a big leverage of investment, should prevail upon the war-mongers sitting in the power corridors of New Delhi. The European Union could also use its influence to let sanity prevail in the region, because in the case of any war, it is the heavy investment of Western companies that is likely to be badly affected.

Pacifists in India and Pakistan should also make hectic efforts to counter the narrative of hate peddled by right-wing forces of the two countries. This region is the land of great pacifists who were against the very idea of killing. So, how can over a billion people of two countries allow a game of destruction that could incinerate the very existence of civilisation, reducing everything to ashes, from scenic valleys to lush green fields and bustling cities to vibrant towns? Bollywood actors should especially step in to challenge this collective insanity.

The writer is a freelance journalist who can be reached at: egalitarianism444@gmail.com