The Afghan scenario

The selection of Maulvi Haibatullah Akhundzada as the new Afghan Taliban chief, just days after Mullah Mansour was killed in a US drone attack in Pakistan, has come as something of a surprise since a power struggle was expected between Sirajuddin Haqqani and Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob. Experts are saying Haibatullah, who was the head of the judiciary in Afghanistan under Taliban rule and is not known to have significant military experience, was the consensus choice to prevent inter-Taliban fighting. He is also thought to be closer to Haqqani so the true power, including the decision on whether to start peace talks with the Afghan government, may rest with Haqqani rather than Haibatullah. The description of Haibatullah as ‘apolitical’ may be an example of typical media hyperbole since there few to no figures committed to the militant cause who can be described as apolitical. It is likely Haibatullah, like Mullah Fazlullah with the TTP, is going to be a figurehead and all important decisions will be taken by the supreme council. If that is the case, the Afghanistan government’s reaction to the new amir was hardly encouraging. An Afghan presidential spokesman said the Taliban should pursue reconciliation and that if they did not then their new leader would meet the same fate as Mullah Mansour. This is hardly the way to bring the reluctant Taliban to the negotiating table.

The US response was hardly more sensible. President Obama said that the leadership change would not mean the Taliban giving up violence and that he did not anticipate them agreeing to peace talks anytime soon. That may well be true but pointing it out doesn’t serve any constructive purpose. The recent words and actions of the US and Afghanistan, including the killing of Mullah Mansour, show two countries that talk about negotiations but do not actually want to practise them. This has put Pakistan in a very difficult position. Army Chief Raheel Sharif has told the US ambassador that such drone strikes hurt relations between the two countries. This particular drone strike has added extra strain because we were supposed to act as mediator between the Taliban and Afghanistan; now we will find it difficult to play that role. The US has also put us in a position where the government seems to be floundering – witness Sartaj Aziz confirming Mullah Mansour’s death days after the rest of the world – but we cannot be sure if the government is pretending to be ignorant to show it had no knowledge of the drone attack before it took place or if it actually is that clueless. Either way, our role in any future peace talks has been seriously compromised.