Re-arrest roulette: what is to be gained from keeping Imran in jail?

KARACHI: The unending arrests of Imran Khan are bad optics, do nothing to break the party, and in fact add to the PTI founder-chairman’s popularity, say political analysts asked to comment on Imran and his wife Bushra Bibi being arrested on Saturday in a new NAB reference related to Toshakhana gifts.

Speaking to The News, journalist Majid Nizami says that the government, and especially the establishment, are very clear in the message they are sending out: “there is no room for forgiveness when it comes to Imran Khan and Bushra Bibi. That is why they make sure that as soon as bail is granted to Imran, he is arrested in some other case”.

Journalist and political analyst Asma Shirazi finds many questions raised with the way they “waited to rearrest Imran after his acquittal in the iddat case even though his bails were cancelled three days back.”

This is not something random that is happening but part of a proper policy, says editor of The Friday Times-Naya Daur Raza Rumi. “The current leadership of Pakistan’s powerful establishment has a clear policy: keep former PM Imran Khan in jail for as long as possible. They have implemented this policy since last year with some measure of success. However, this is now becoming untenable with a judiciary that is hell-bent on giving a pushback to the mighty establishment. In Pakistan’s political history the judges of superior courts have by and large followed the policies set by the establishment. However, in the case of Imran Khan there seems to be a major diversion. In fact, if one were to call it a rebellion it would not be incorrect.”

Shirazi also feels that there are in this situation “two extreme approaches -- one from the judiciary, the other the establishment.” She says these two extremes are the root cause of this whole situation.

For Shirazi, in these cases, “the cause and the beneficiary are the same: Imran Khan. I would even say that both Imran and the establishment are the beneficiaries of this. This is not a fight for power but for authority. On the one end is the establishment that is fighting for its authority and on the other is Imran Khan who is showing his power. So the system is being subjected to their dual attack in a way. Before this, there was one centre of power. Now that centre is shifting via the judiciary. One has to understand that the judiciary has become a proxy-like entity in all this. In the end, though, no one will win this.”

Nizami says this really doesn’t benefit anyone politically. He does add that the government “is comfortable because with Imran in jail, it doesn’t have to deal with rallies etc that would happen if he were free.”

However, warns Nizami, “These optics are terrible for the political atmosphere. This is not fulfilling any political purpose; this is a purely administrative decision in which they are sending a message. These rearrests are bad optics. They also make PTI supporters band even closer together under their party.”

Rumi offers a different take. For him, “the political impact of this particular policy is the increased popularity of Imran Khan and his image as a victim of state excesses.” He feels that while this may work in the short term, “in the long run, the establishment will have to make a deal with Imran Khan and allow the courts to release him. That stage is yet to come.”

Is the government trying to break the party by keeping Imran in jail via these consecutive arrests? Perhaps but “all the experiments to break the party while he’s incarcerated have also failed”, says Nizami. He adds that even talk of a “forward bloc may be tried but past examples show that this too may not work”.

Shirazi says that Imran being in jail does not mean his party is in danger of breaking. However, she feels the party’s performance does get affected: “They cannot and have not been able to launch a movement the way they would have had he been free. His party is intact though, and public support has also made sure that his party members don’t leave the party.”

PILDAT President Ahmed Bilal Mehboob says that it “does not make any legal or constitutional sense to arrest and rearrest Imran every time he is acquitted.” This is a political decision, he explains. “They think that if Imran comes out and his party is allowed to organise and conduct itself freely then it may disrupt the current political order which would also disrupt any economic gains they may have presumably made in the past few months. Therefore the stakes are high for this setup.”

There is no justification for this, however, adds Mehboob who also feels that disruption too is not acceptable which is why “many people have suggested a dialogue be organized and somehow the system disruption be guarded against.”

Asma Shirazi ends on a note of caution: “All of this is hurting the system -- and more than that the state’s institutions. The credibility of the judiciary and the establishment is at stake, particularly the judiciary.”