PM’s Friday discourse to decide fate of opposition alliance

Panama Papers

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ISLAMABAD: How effectively and convincingly Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif explains his and family’s position on PanamaLeaks next Friday at the National Assembly, as close aides spell out, is going to decide fate of the 9-party opposition alliance formed on this issue.

That “happening day” will also set direction whether chess board of the murky and unpredictable Pakistani polity will be confined to Parliament, or there will be pitched battles on the streets for weeks and months to come. To keep the public and media interest alive, we keep on hearing, PTI firebrand leader Imran Khan is preparing for a long haul to push for general elections later this year, or in early 2017. They, along with like-minded leaders, will keep the PanamaLeaks issue alive till the end of harsh summer weather, and don’t rule out dharna sequel-2, this August.

The PML-N brains are, however, treading an aggressive defence approach, hoping intensity of the current political storm will subside with the passage of time. For now, they are open to negotiations on ToRs on PanamaLeaks investigations with the opposition, at the same time, are patiently waiting for denting the 9-party opposition alliance – loosely bonded around PanamaLeaks.

Information Minister Pervaiz Rashid’s announcement about Premier Sharif’s imminent arrival in the National Assembly seemed music to the ears of Opposition Leader. Khurshed Shah had apparently come for a short stint just to dampen moods of the treasury at the outset of Tuesday’s proceedings. There is no denying the fact that proceedings of the Senate or the National Assembly without opposition’s presence and active participation are boring and the dull affair. The same happened on Tuesday. As the opposition lot walked out, the proceedings remained suspended for more than an hour as PTI’s legislator pointed out the quorum. Even after the treasury was able to muster the required strength after an awkward break of an hour or so, the whole proceeding that followed was lifeless, monologue.

Earlier, happily surprised by the minister’s announcement, the opposition leader reciprocated the same way but has to play by the rules and conditions being set and guided by the PTI firebrands. Shah and likeminded companions however need some arguments and space to get out of PTI’s political hold.

A strong lobby within the opposition rank and file is already feeling the brunt of the situation, and advising caution. The more this issue is pushed away from the Parliament, they opine, the more unpredictable the political situation becomes.

PPP’s Sindh leaders, party insiders say, are already advising the elder Zardari to check unbridled advances of some of its Punjab leaders, having gone too cozy with PTI, and rather pushing it agenda.

Was it out of sheer frustration, or fear that consensus on Panama Papers Investigation and ToRs won’t hold them together for long? Whatever the case maybe, PTI-PPP led joint opposition played its most lethal parliamentary card this Monday ever since their new found alliance came into existence. Aitzaz Ahsan, Senate Opposition Leader, would be a happy man. At the peak of political carrer, he has love with such in-house adventures. Remember the mock Senate proceedings at Parliament House's lawns two years back. Sheikh Rashid Ahmed would also be a relieved man as opposition in both the Houses boycotted the proceedings for second day running. Some achievement, at last, started with Sheikh's unsuccessful efforts almost three years back.

Last one was to elevate friend Imran Khan as opposition leader. After a lapse of three years, he has to his credit an amalgam of opposition parties. Interestingly, this time, the premier was advised by none other than his political allies not to explain his or family's position on Panama Papers on the floor of the house. Not anymore.

Critical of his no-show in the Parliament for weeks and months in the past, allies like Achakzai and Bazenjo would often ask him to lead the Parliament from the seat of Leader of House. PML-N hawks however feel PPP and PTI would use the situation to their advantage by rejecting whatever will come from the premier, and then announcing the next set of agitation.

Ruling party and allies feel the investigation through a judicial commission would be tedious, and could span over months. Even if they start immediately, the parleys on a government-opposition consensus ToRs may take a month or so to materialise. That’s why, opposition has changed strategy as they emphasise the premier should turn up in Parliament to answer all the allegations. They plan to introduce a set of pointed question for the premier for that day. Satisfied, some of them might take the reconciliation path. Rest will take the agitation course. Saner elements in the PTI are sure the kind of international investigation however their demand won’t lead them anywhere. The layers of secrecy and protection around the offshore companies are too thick and well guarded. And the harsh summer is setting in fast, making it almost impossible for a mass movement to start and sustain for days and weeks to come.

Ask lower middle class to middle class PTI fans how they feel about a dharna sequel-2 and most of them would sheepishly laugh it out. An Islamabad like sit-in is unthinkable for the PTI bandwagon of fans emotionally bruised by the outcome of 126 days of 2014 agitation at the heart of capital, Islamabad.

A march towards Raiwind estate of the Sharifs, away from the seat of power in Islamabad, is far less tempting for those in a hurry to elevate Imran Khan as premier of the country through a short cut.

And it will invoke little emotion and enthusiasm amongst 7 million plus PTI voters and supporters. Hence the present change of tactics that may in all likelihood lead to “fireworks” on Friday in the safe environs of the parliament.