Deadlock

Capital suggestion

As per an estimate by the World Bank, public-sector corruption costs Pakistan around $8 billion a year; Rs2.2 billion a day every single day of the year. From the August 14, 1947 till April 2, 2016, public-sector corruption has never been a major political issue. For the record, after the Panama Papers public-sector corruption has become the issue.

There are two parts to the $8 billion a year racket – need-based corruption and greed-based corruption. Need-based corruption is whereby a low ranking and underpaid government servant takes a thousand rupees to speed up a file (so that he can pay his son’s school fee). Need-based corruption is perhaps a percent of the $8 billion annual takeaway as greed based corruption swallows up the lion’s share.

For the first time in Pakistan’s political history the PPP, PTI, MQM, JI, ANP, PML-Q, QWP, BNP and AML have gathered on a platform that is based on accountability. To be certain, the nine-party alliance that has 114 MNAs in its fold intends to extract the maximum political mileage out of the Panama Papers fiasco but one of the unintended consequences has been mass awareness of how private greed is eating into public money.

The political defenders of an unaccountable democracy have teamed up under the lead of the PML-N and include JUI-F, PMAP and NP. To be certain, the four-party alliance that has 206 MNAs in its fold intends to divert, delay and ultimately derail the move towards accountable democracy. One of the consequences has been a complete political deadlock.

The nine-party alliance is demanding reconciliation between one’s income and assets – starting with the prime minister. The PML-N led alliance is responding by placing billion-rupee advertisements in the media, holding public rallies and announcing billion-rupee developmental projects.

Deadlock is a “situation, typically one involving opposing parties, in which no progress can be made”. Imagine; Pakistan is in a state of war and our political system has come to a “standstill resulting from the opposition of two unrelenting forces”. As I see it, a deadlock that prolongs actually works for the nine-party alliance. As I see it, a prolonged deadlock takes the system closer to a tipping point.

The nine-party alliance has three choices. One, a vote of no-confidence in the assembly (which is bound to fail). Two, a grand compromise with the PML-N. Three, street agitation. From now on, public pressure will make it difficult for any member of the nine-party alliance to walk out of the alliance. In the post-Charter of Democracy period, Barrister Aitzaz Ahsan is the PPP’s new scriptwriter-and his political-cum-legal genius is unrivaled.

The PML-N has no answer to the question being raised (reconciliation between one’s income and assets – starting with the prime minister). Logically, the only thing that the PML-N led alliance is left with is to divert, delay – and then hope for the best. On the ground, the best for the PML-N is getting worse over time, not better.

Time, as I see it, is on the side of the nine-party alliance. The prime minister needs to have a judicial commission in place that cleanses him-the sooner the better. My bet is that if there’s a commission the PM will be rescued.

Remember, ‘horse sense is the thing a horse has which keeps it from betting on people’.

The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad.

Email: farrukh15@hotmail.com Twitter: @saleemfarrukh