Keeping the transition on track

These are uncertain times as a fragile political dispensation treads on a slippery path and politicians play selfish games while facilitating greater space to a dominant army. The questions that are being asked are: should the prime minister resign or should he call the opposition’s bluff? Are we heading towards mid-term elections or yet another breakdown of the constitutional setup?

The post-Musharraf transition has been quite bumpy and uncertain. Despite all kinds of accusations, former president Asif Ali Zardari was able to steer through and implement constitutional reforms to strengthen the sovereignty of parliament. He was dragged into the Memogate scandal by COAS Kayani and General Pasha who were themselves caught unawares by the US Navy Seals’ operation in Abbottabad. He, however, survived and ensured the first ever smooth political transition in the country.

As soon as the Nawaz Sharif government had completed its honeymoon period, it had to face a sponsored-dharna whose leader was clearly calling for military intervention. But his move was thwarted by a united parliament – rallied by Asif Ali Zardari – behind Prime Minister Sharif. COAS Raheel Sharif chose to emerge as an honest arbiter in the political conflict, which helped him revive the leading role of the army in national affairs and security and foreign policies in particular. This deprived the PM of his cherished agenda of reconciliation and peace for regional economic cooperation.

Once the army chief took the initiative to meet the challenge of terrorism, a slow-moving civilian leadership also lost any role in formulating both security and foreign policies. Even after the civilian consensus on the National Action Plan, the elected leadership could not lead from the front as compared to the armed forces that are trained for such bloody warfare.

Consequently, as the space for the military expanded, the military leadership retained its hold over Balochistan and expanded it to Sindh. Like his role in Memogate when he joined hands with General Kayani, Nawaz Sharif allowed the hegemony of paramilitary forces over and above the head of provincial civil authority. Subsequently, a failure to nab the Chotu gang was enough to allow the army to extend its writ to Punjab – where the PML-N was reluctant to concede its legitimate authority.

After a successful Operation Zarb-e-Azb and the restoration of law and order in Karachi, the armed forces should have been persuaded to gradually transfer authority back to the civilian institutions. On the contrary, in what is being described as a ‘creeping coup’, the army has virtually taken over all that matters. Keeping the civilian setup under constant pressure, the army is in a very comfortable position to play around unscathed and keep a hold over what it deems necessary. It has the advantage also of doing that without directly taking the burden of public scrutiny and failures of governance in a country that is dangerously becoming unviable, both economically and strategically.

Coupled with the depleting capacity of national resources to increasing demands, Pakistan is moving towards becoming a state that cannot take this burden for much longer, despite having sacrificed the social and human security of its people.

Indeed, nobody could be domestically blamed except for those who had stashed unaccounted for money in offshore companies. Neither can the inviolability of the privacy principle be applied for refuge from transparency. People want their elected leaders to be as transparent as they can be. Although, the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) has accepted its mistake in naming Nawaz Sharif among the beneficiaries of offshore companies in the Panama Papers, the burden of proof remains on his children, who are now independent and do business outside Pakistan. He can’t be blamed for what his sons have been doing outside Pakistan if no clear connection can be established. His resignation is being demanded by Imran Khan for political advantage, rather than on moral grounds.

The prime minister seems to have refused to be cowed down since he perceives all this to be a conspiracy to dismantle the PML-N – as MQM and the PPP are being subjected to political engineering– which he alone can keep united. As the next general elections draw closer, and since he is half way through implementing his ‘development’ agenda and overcoming loadshedding by 2018, the prime minister is not inclined to commit political suicide by either resigning or calling for early elections. On the other hand, the opposition – the PTI in particular – will not let the government get away scot-free; this while they seem to be ignoring the imperatives of keeping within the safe limits of a fragile democratic framework.

The PM could have called the opposition’s bluff by asking his children to reveal the sources of their wealth and properties. Until that happens, he will continue to be bogged down, which his political detractors and powerful minders prefer. He delayed his letter to the chief justice, and by expanding the scope of accountability to loan defaulters and keeping certain ambiguities he has allowed the opposition to beat him at his game. It would be better if he were to bring the opposition on board to clarify and strengthen the TORs for the commission – to focus on the Panama leaks.

Before it gets too late, the broader sections of the opposition must also realise their democratic responsibility towards not letting the constitutional order break down. Imran Khan’s 2014 dharna had weakened both the Sharif government and the PTI; the opposition’s reckless onslaught now could further weaken the civil-military equation and may even lead to yet another breakdown of the constitutional order. It’s time to move forward in a mutually agreed manner to keep the democratic transition on track.

The writer is a senior journalist.

Email: imtiaz.safma@gmail.com

Twitter: @ImtiazAlamSAFMA