Pennsylvania tests Trump’s appeal

With a rusting steel mill in its center, this Pennsylvania city would seem fertile ground for Donald Trump’s campaign and its vision of a declining America that only he can fix.

Yet Trump, who will be seeking voters’ backing as the Republican nominee for the White House in the state’s primary on Tuesday, may face a stiffer challenge than the demise of the local steel industry might suggest.

In the two decades since the blast furnaces of Bethlehem Steel went silent, the local economy did not follow the once-mighty company into decline.

The old mill’s 1,600 acre site has been adapted as the backdrop of a novel urban park that includes an arts center, a Public Broadcasting Service studio, and a Sands casino resort with 2,400 employees.

Bethlehem and the Lehigh Valley region around it have filled new industrial parks with e-commerce companies, white collar businesses fleeing New York’s high costs, and global giants such as Japanese imaging firm Olympus.

Trump has stormed ahead of the Republican field successfully tapping the frustration and anger of millions of Americans who feel bruised and left behind by a fast-changing and increasingly globalised economy.

The Pennsylvania ballot will test how that message resonates in areas that can serve as an example of successful transformation.

It might also give a taste of which narrative might prevail in the campaign for the November presidential election - one built around evidence of steady economic recovery and an improving labour market, or one of pessimism fueled by stagnant incomes for many and widening wealth disparities.

"If you were to design the perfect Trump location, the Lehigh Valley was that 25 years ago," said Chris Borick, a political science professor at Muhlenberg College in Allentown.

"It is a different place now. Some of the blue collar appeal that Trump may be having in other areas of the country or the state may have less of a target here."

The New York real estate mogul and reality TV celebrity is heading into the Pennsylvania contest with a solid lead, according to most polls.

The most recent, published on Thursday by the Centre for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin & Marshall College, gave Trump a 14 percentage point lead over Ohio Governor John Kasich and a 16 point advantage over Sen Ted Cruz.

Nationally, Trump leads in the tally of delegates to the Republican convention with 845 followed by Ted Cruz with 559 and Kasich with 148, according to Associated Press, and is looking for another big night on April 26. Primaries in Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware and Maryland will allocate roughly a quarter of the remaining delegates to the July convention - the largest bloc at stake until California votes in June.

Kasich and Cruz supporters hope they can slow Trump’s march to the 1,237 delegates needed to clinch the nomination by snagging delegates chosen at the Congressional district level.