News Analysis: Why PTI accepts pro-Imran surveys only?

ISLAMABAD: For years, Imran Khan boasted and presented himself as the most popular leader of the country, citing public polls especially Gallup surveys in his favour.

However, the PTI chief accepted only those surveys which were favorable to him.

The recent surveys in which other political parties, including PMLN and PPP, were shown ahead of PTI were termed bogus by the former premier Imran Khan and his party. Even the public surveys carried out on social networking websites were termed credible by Khan when it showed favorable result.

The sample size, questions asked in the surveys, demographic composition, gender ratio are the key components that determine the accuracy of a survey’s findings. But for PTI and its leaders, these components do not matter as long as they show Imran Khan as a popular leader. The PTI questions the credibility of only those surveys which shows other parties ahead of it.

Interestingly, Imran Khan soon after his government was overthrown through a vote of no-confidence showed a survey chart depicting Khan as the most popular leader of the country. The survey was conducted by a private think tank ‘The Republic Policy’. This agency is run by a retired police officer.

According to political pundits, the Republic Policy’s survey was based on polls conducted on social networking website Twitter instead of any strong constituency based opinion polls. Nonetheless, Imran Khan quoted this poll to present himself as the nation’s most popular leader. It is important to note here that the public polls agencies carry out surveys independently as well as on the demand of government departments and political parties too. The political parties engage these agencies before elections to gauge their popularity.

Recently, in December 2023, Gallup Pakistan carried out a survey showing PMLN supremo’s approval ratings improved in last eight months. But PTI questioned accuracy of the survey. According to this survey, “Within Punjab, Nawaz Sharif is ahead of Imran Khan.” The Gallup survey showed that PMLNN head Nawaz Sharif’s ratings have improved whereas, Imran’s remained almost consistent. The survey showed that the gap between PMLN and PTI has been narrowing in the last eight months slowly but consistently.

As per the survey, the gap between PMLN and PTI was 21 percent in Punjab with PTI in the lead in March 2023. However, the PMLN regained its position in the Punjab and the gap is now around 2 percent in December 2023 surveys. It will be crucial to see whether the acceptability of PMLN continues to grow in the last 30 days before the elections.

Similarly, another survey showed PMLN was ahead of PTI in Lahore. These latest surveys just before the elections reflect the voters’ mindset.

However, PTI doesn’t accept these surveys because they are not favorable for them. For PTI, the surveys carried out by organisations like Republic Policy are credible. Even though PTI always quoted Gallup surveys when they show Imran Khan ahead of other political leaders.