Higher river inflows to benefit Kharif crops

LAHORE: River inflows are likely to exceed average levels during April-September (Kharif) season, starting April 1, 2016, benefiting cash crops - cotton, rice and sugarcane, it was learnt on Monday.

The technical committee of Indus River System Authority (Irsa), which met on March 25 in the federal capital, anticipated no shortage of water for the provinces in the upcoming season. The body reviewed inputs of various departments about the availability of water in the Indus basin during the Kharif season. Based on the stakeholders’ discussions, it was observed that river flows were likely to exceed average water use by more than 10 million acre feet.

However, precise forecast of water availability would be issued in a few days after the upcoming meeting of Irsa’s Advisory Committee.

The advisory committee of Irsa, the country’s apex water regulatory body, would finalise projections about the availability of water for Kharif, following deliberations of the technical committee in accordance with input on the basis of inflow probabilities as per historic flows, rainfall patterns, and overall system water losses.

“We expect that about 12 to 13 MAF of water will escape below Kotri Barrage into the sea during the coming Kharif season, indicating excess availability of river inflows after meeting irrigation requirements and filling reservoirs,” said sources.

Average annual system uses of Indus Basin stands at 103MAF, including 67MAF of Kharif and remaining 36MAF of Rabi season (October-March).

Main factors behind greater inflows, if compared with average uses, were changing climatic conditions and increased storage capacity of Mangla Dam after it was raised a couple of years ago, sources said.

Augmentation of Mangla storage capacity was not a net gain in overall conservation capacity, as about a similar volume has been lost due to siltation.

Sources observed that sufficient availability of inflows of water could lead to achieving cultivation targets, besides improving hydropower generation.

The prediction of above average water flows in the coming Kharif would ensure smooth irrigation supplies for crops that are otherwise prone to an erratic Monsoon, sources said. Citing Seasonal Outlook for early Summer 2016, which was issued by Pakistan Metrological Department, sources said March and April have been predicted as wetter than normal months. Frequent spells of rainfall and isolated hailstorms associated with windstorm were expected in these months.

On the other hand, sources said as per prediction, May and first half of June was likely to remain drier and hotter than normal. That would increase the probability of heat waves over plains and coastal belt of the country. During this period, sources said, stored water in dams would greatly help in meeting irrigation requirements.  

Due to likely intense heating, monsoon was expected earlier in the second half of June 2016, however, as El Niño was declining, global climate models predict it to run in the neutral phase during monsoon season, said sources while referring to the projection of the Met office.