Elections that will shape global politics in 2023

KARACHI: This year saw far-right leaders win multiple elections around the world, including Sweden, Italy, Hungary, Israel and in India where the right-wing BJP triumphed in state elections, including in Uttar Pradesh. But the far-right were routed in Brazil, former President Jair Bolsonaro failed to stay in power after his defeat to the left-wing Luis Inácio Lula da Silva. Meanwhile, neighbouring Colombia elected its first leftist president with Gustavo Petro. And in the U.S. midterm elections, the Democratic party held onto its Senate majority and lost fewer House seats than expected. 2023 will be another major year for elections. Below, are the key contests.

Pakistan

Pakistan faced a massive political and climate crisis in 2022. Major flooding in August inundated one-third of the country, displacing more than 33 million people and killing at least 1,400 people. In April, former prime minister Imran Khan, of the centrist Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party, was ousted from power following a no-confidence vote. Shehbaz Sharif, of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), who replaced Khan has faced criticism over his handling of Pakistan’s economic crisis, floods, and an upsurge in terrorist attacks.

For his part, Khan, the former cricket star, has held sweeping anti-government rallies since his removal. In August, Pakistan charged Khan under the country’s anti-terrorism act after he criticised top officials for the arrest of his chief of staff; law enforcement accused him of threatening officials. In September, a high court quashed the charges against Khan and in November, a failed assassination attempt left Khan wounded. Khan has argued that the current Pakistani government is illegitimate and unfit to govern. He has also repeatedly suggested without evidence that the U.S. was involved in his ouster. Experts say the big question-mark is when elections will take place. Per the constitution, Pakistan’s elections need to take place Oct 12 at the latest. “Khan has been gaining a lot of popularity, so politically speaking, the sooner the elections happen, the better for him,” says Kugelman.

Nigeria

Elections in Africa’s most populous country are due on Feb. 25 amid a volatile security situation. Violence from separatist and extremist groups have made security a key issue for Nigerian voters. Coupled with high inflation, the easy availability of guns, and at least half of the country living below the poverty line, it’s a “perfect storm of intolerable concerns.” President Muhammadu Buhari, who leads the center-left All Progressives Congress (APC) party, will not be running; term limits bar him from seeking reelection. APC has put forward the former governor of Lagos, Asiwaju Ahmed Tinubu, to run in Buhari’s place. More than a dozen parties have candidates on the ballot and if none of them win a majority, Nigeria will have its first run-off election. Those in the running include former Vice President Alhaji Atiku Abubaker, who leads the main opposition party, the center-right People’s Democratic Party, as well as Labour Party candidate Peter Obi.

Turkey

Recep Tayyip Erdoan’s lengthy rule of Turkey could be put to its toughest test on June 18. Erdoan was Turkey’s Prime Minister from 2003 to 2014 and has been President since 2017. But Erdoan has lost support in recent years, in part because of Turkey’s ongoing economic crisis. Inflation surpassed 80% under his unorthodox economic policies dubbed “Erdoganomics.” Turkey has also cracked down on journalists under Erdoan’s leadership and enacted a new censorship law.

Erdoan’s main opponents will likely emerge from the Millet (Nation) Alliance, a coalition of parties that has not yet chosen a presidential candidate, and the Labor and Freedom Alliance, led by the People’s Democratic Party, which has a lot of support from Turkey’s Kurdish minority. “Erdoan on his own can muster a great deal of popular support, and it’s unclear that even a coalition of opposition leaders could emerge to challenge him successfully,” says H.A. Hellyer, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “It seems that Erdogan himself is signalling that he’s not going to continue indefinitely, even if he does win this next election, it may well be his last anyway,” Hellyer says.

Argentina

On Oct 29, Argentines will elect a President, members of the National Congress, and governors in most provinces. Argentina’s economic crisis will likely be on voters’ minds; inflation has reached 88% in the 12 months through October.

President Alberto Fernández, with the center-left coalition Frente de Todos, has said he will run for re-election. He may face competition from within his own party as well as from the conservative economist Javier Milei, a likely candidate with the coalition La Libertad Avanza. In September, a failed assassination attempt targeted Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, Argentina’s current Vice President and President from 2007 to 2015. Kirchner had hinted that she would run for the top job again, but was convicted on corruption charges earlier this month and banned from holding public office.

Bangladesh

Bangladesh’s current government of Sheikh Hasina Wajid has been in power since 2009. But experts and opposition politicians have accused the center-left Awami League of contesting elections unfairly. National reporters said they witnessed ballot stuffing and voter intimidation. “This government has ruled with an iron first and has not hesitated to crack down hard on the opposition,” Kugelman says. He is skeptical that a new election commission tasked with administering free and fair elections will be truly independent and not “heavily influenced by, if not dictated to, the ruling party.” Either way, the vote, expected in December, could determine whether democracy flourishes or shrinks in Bangladesh.

Many other countries are heading to the polls this year, even if a large portion of these votes will be neither free nor fair.