PTI may win four, lose two seats in Punjab

LAHORE: Polling will take place for three National Assembly and three provincial assembly seats in Punjab on Sunday, whereas nationwide by-elections will take place for seven NA seats.

The constituencies where polling will take place on Oct 16 are; NA-22 Mardan, NA-24 Charsadda, NA-31 Peshawar, NA-108 Faisalabad, NA-118 Nankana Sahib, NA-237 Malir, and NA-239 Korangi Karachi.

The by-poll on NA 45, a tribal area seat, has been postponed over law and order. The hallmark of the 2022 by-polls is that former prime minister Imran Khan is contesting all the NA seats except one that is NA 157, where PPP candidate Ali Musa Gilani has been pitched as the PDM candidate against Meher Bano Qureshi, the daughter of party vice-chairman Shah Mehmood Qureshi. Local people see a very tough contest here. Nearly 10 years ago, in early 2012, Ali Musa Gilani, son of former prime minister Syed Yusuf Raza Gilani, won an NA seat from Multan that was vacated by Shah Mehmood, who had joined the PTI by then. Ali Musa in that contest bagged around 90,000 votes. Meher Bano Qureshi Qureshi is running for the seat left vacant by her brother Zain Qureshi, and the PTI will face a litmus test here.

Similarly, in PP 241, Bahawalnagar, the PTI is facing a tough competition from the PMLN where Aman Ullah Bajwa, the brother of sitting PMLN MNA Ahsanul Haq Bajwa, is contesting against Muzaffar Awan of the Tehreek-i-Insaaf. In this seat, the PTI has to go the extra mile to defeat the PMLN. Rest assured the PTI is likely to win most of the seats in Punjab due to a variety of factors, including loadshedding and inflation, which have added to the PMLN’s woes. Dr Shizra Mansab is running against Imran Khan in the election. Dr Shizra won this seat in 2014 by polls when it fell vacant as a result of her father’s death. She defeated PTI candidate Brig Ejaz Shah from here, and Brig Ejaz Shah won the seat in 2018. After his resignation, the seat has fallen vacant again and Imran Khan has fielded himself from here.

Besides, Imran is also contesting from NA 108, the seat from where PMLN’s Abid Sher Ali tasted defeat for the first time in 2018 at the hands of PTI’s former student leader Farrukh Habib.

Farrukh Habib won that seat with a margin of less than 2,000 votes, but under the prevailing circumstances when the PMLN central government has been under immense criticism for its inability to deliver, the result on this seat in Pakistan’s top industrial city could go in favour of the PTI. Most of the people living in Faisalabad are associated with small and major industries, whereas the issues like power outages and economic challenges have hit them directly and this could go against the PMLN.

Former MPA Iftikhar Bhangu is the PMLN candidate in Sharaqpur in Sheikhupura, district against Mian Abubakar Sharaqpuri, a close relative of former MNA, MPA, and district nazim Mian Jaleel Sharaqpuri, who is now in the PTI. This seat is considered a secure seat for the PTI for some reasons, including the increasing vote bank of the Tehreek-i-Insaaf as well as the spiritual following of Jaleel Sharaquri’s group.

From Khanewal, PP 209 is a seat where a by-poll is taking place and the seat was won by Faisal Niazi of the PMLN in 2018. Faisal Niazi joined the PTI and resigned from the membership. He is now the PTI candidate and has been challenged by PMLN’s Ziaur Rehman.

Rao Arif, the candidate of Tehreek-i- Labbaik Pakistan. The PMLN won this seat with a margin of around 16,000 votes in 2018 and it is quite obvious that it has a strong vote bank here. Nevertheless, the factors that damaged the PMLN in July 2022 by polls still exist, and July 2022 by poll results are also quite likely to have a noticeable impact on Oct 2022 by-elections, as the PTI is still enjoying an edge and taking full advantage of the PMLN government’s weaknesses and inability to live up to the expectations of the people.