The talk talk

Gautam Bambawale, the new Indian high commissioner in Islamabad, has brought with him a welcome attitude. In his first official statement, Bambawale said there was no reason to link foreign secretary-level talks between the two countries to investigations into the Pathankot airbase attack. The dates for the talks were supposed to be finalised on January 15 but were postponed because of the attack. The cynical interpretation of Bambawale’s statement is that he is echoing New Delhi, which has claimed with a straight face that talks are on track even as it has derailed them. Still, Bambawale did hold out hope of better economic ties, saying it could lead to breakthroughs on other issues. This is in contrast to the usual Indian position that terrorism must be at the top of the agenda, with every other issue relegated or not discussed at all. As Bambawale pointed out, the two countries need to normalise the visa regime. Greater interaction between Pakistanis and Indians cannot hurt and may even help dispel misunderstanding and mutual suspicion.

Bambawale’s statement notwithstanding, there are many potential flashpoints that could indefinitely derail the foreign secretary level talks. There have been recent unconfirmed reports in the Indian media that Masood Azhar is now free from protective custody, something Pakistan has forthrightly denied. Even then, we cannot hold him without charge for too much longer and India will not care about legal niceties should he be released. Islamabad has been cooperative so far on its investigation into the Pathankot attack and India has held back from being too critical but that, as we have experienced with the 2008 Mumbai attacks, can change in a flash. An Indian national has just been convicted by an army court in Peshawar for spying on Pakistan while an Indian diplomat accused of working for Pakistan is facing trial in India. Either of these incidents could spiral out of control. Pakistan is well aware of how ideologically extreme the government of Narendra Modi is and how he can turn on Pakistan on a dime should internal politics so require. The way the Indian government unjustifiably dragged Pakistan into the ruckus over protests at JNU is only the most recent example of this phenomenon. The best way forward is to schedule the talks as soon as possible and then actually go through with them.