The Chabahar deal

Pakistan’s increasing international and regional isolation is becoming a harsh reality. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Afghan President Ashraf Ghani were in Tehran on Monday to ink a transit and trade deal with their Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani. The main agreement was over the development of the Chabahar port in southern Iran, for which India will pay $500 million, as well as a railway line that will give India access to Afghanistan, Iran and Central Asia without having to cross Pakistani territory. There had been activity on this agreement since last year, when international sanctions on Iran were removed and Afghanistan – with Indian assistance – built the Zaranj-Delaram highway, which serves as a road link to Chabahar. Pakistan and China will both rightly see the Chabahar port as a direct competitor to the Gwadar Port; however, both countries were able to do precious little to stop this deal from becoming a reality. To the hawks in Pakistan, the agreement would seem to confirm that the three countries are actively trying to derail the CPEC project. But one could read it differently. The agreement for the Chabahar port could also show a strong desire to trade.

Pakistan has seen itself as an essential cog in regional trade. But, for internal and external reasons this has not become a reality. With Iran, we managed this failure both by doing little to control infiltration across the border by militants and then by backing out of our commitment to construct our portion of the gas pipeline after Iran had already built the pipeline on its side. With Afghanistan we have all the usual tensions over alleged support for militants but we have added trade to the list of reasons for Afghan annoyance. Under the Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement, we allow Afghan goods to be transported to India via the Wagah border but do not allow Afghan trucks to bring back Indian goods across the border. This has led to trade between Afghanistan and India stagnating at around $680 million a year. With the new land routes now being developed, Pakistan will be bypassed altogether. There is perhaps little we could have done to improve relations with Modi’s India but it is worth stressing that India and Iran first agreed to set up the port in Chabahar in 2003 and the project was only put on hold because of the imposition of sanctions on Iran. That we couldn’t become a part of that agreement in the last 13 years while driving Afghanistan into their arms as well shows how our foreign policy – or lack thereof – has been such a drag on our economy. Following the Chabahar port development, Pakistan should be able to revise its regional strategy. India and Afghanistan’s agreement with Iran is by no means airtight. Iran’s economy is only opening up to the global economy. The lifting of sanctions is fresh and there is no guarantee it will be permanent. What is certain, though, is that the region’s future lies in the formation of new trade links. We still have opportunities to make a difference before it’s too late in the day.