The news about the release of eight new block-52 F-16 aircraft to the PAF by the United States appears to have put the Modi government in India into a tailspin. Besides expressing their deep concern the United States ambassador in India was summoned and given a dressing down – demarche - in diplomatic parlance. These fresh inductions, according to the Indian defence pundits, would seriously alter the balance of military power between India and Pakistan, in favour of the latter.
The entire sales package that include eight F-16s, attack helicopters, missiles and communications equipment is expected to cost around $952 million. Given the Indian defence budget of over $ 40 billion compared to a paltry $ 7.6 billion of Pakistan, the IAF’s already marked numerical superiority in high-tech fighters in comparison with the PAF and the fact that India has just finalized a deal with France to induct 36 fifth generation Rafale fighters, this brouhaha is difficult to fathom. There is, however, a method in the apparent Indian madness and if I were an Indian sleuth, I would be very worried.
The PAF has been actively engaged in targeting the terror syndicates in its Tribal Belts for the past decade. The F-16 fleet of the PAF, given its range, endurance and the ability to drop precision guided munitions (PGMs), has been the weapon of first choice and these have been the workhorse ever since. In this form of warfare air operations is a long drawn continuous process and the targets are small and fleeting. Ability to engage Time Sensitive Targets (TSTs) is one of the critical air operations in such a scenario. The PAF has over a period of time developed and perfected TST attack strategy and its successful implementation has paid rich dividend.
The earlier model of F-16s which were in the PAF’s inventory were very capable platforms but suffered from one limitation when deployed in the counterinsurgency role – it did not have full night attack capability. In addition, while its precision weapons delivery ability was fairly good against a conventional adversary, the need for even greater precision to keep collateral damage to an absolute minimum, a must in this form of warfare, was the need of the hour. The TST missions had forced the terror groups to severely limit their daylight movement of men and material but being aware of the night limitation of the PAF, they could still utilise the night window for the purpose. Their leaders would take shelter at night and leave the premises before first light when a PAF air strike was imminent.
Since the first batch of F-16 Block-52 models was delivered to the PAF in 2012, the ability to operate even during the darkest night and the need for greater precision in weapons delivery has been addressed to a degree. Now a particular room rather than the entire house can be successfully taken out, thus substantially reducing the likelihood of collateral damage. This has put the insurgents under severe pressure – their safety during night for travel, rest and leisure has been effectively compromised. They are now under surveillance and pressure on a 24/7 basis. The current batch of eight F-16s have the latest advanced avionics that make them even more precise and lethal in night attack and weapons delivery. With their induction the ability of the PAF to make life even more miserable for Mullah Fazlullah and his ilk is what truly irks the Indian sleuths, hence the uproar by the Modi government.
Mullah Fazlullah, the current head of the TTP is presently hiding in eastern Afghanistan from where he claims responsibility for attacks on soft targets like schools in Pakistan. After the expulsion of the terror syndicates from North Waziristan because of Zarb e Azb military operations, the ability of the terrorists to train new recruits, raise funds through narcotics trade and other criminal activities has been drastically curtailed. Most of them, particularly the TTP, get substantial funding from the Indian Research and Analysis (RAW) wing. The Zarb e Azb operations where air strikes by the PAF plays a very important role has made life miserable for the Indian hired assassins in the shape of the TTP and other terror syndicates. As the ability of the PAF to take out the rebels enhances, the cost of supporting them by India rises exponentially and the fear that the proxy war it has been waging against Pakistan could ground to an absolute halt, along with its policy of ensuring Afghanistan remains perpetually hostile to Pakistan, is a nightmare scenario for the Indian RAW masters eand its foreign policy babus.
Would you, if you were an Indian RAW operator, not be upset if the PAF counterinsurgency competency gets a boost because of this fresh induction?
—Jamal Hussain
