Held Kashmir still not going India’s way

The Modi Sarkar did not anticipate major internationalisation of the Held Kashmir issue when it removed the Article 370 nor the reaction of the Kashmiri public. The curfew so far has been in place for some 20 days, something the Indian government did not consider when taking the action. It is unprecedented holding millions of people hostage for such a long time. It may continue for unforeseeable future.

Then came a major rebuke in the form of a warning by Genocide Watch, a US-based organisation, which has issued an alert in this regard, giving a list of risk factors for a genocide that are early warnings of massacres in IHK. It was massively downplayed by the Indian media and the Modi government. Nevertheless, it was a jolt for the Indian establishment and an eye-opener for the world. Nobody wants a repeat of Rwanda or Srebrenica.

The extraordinary long total communications blackout in IHK is also something that the Modi Sarkar did not plan. There has been no internet access, while mobile phone networks, cable and Kashmiri television channels have been blocked. This is unthinkable in today’s modern era that raised fears throughout the world what was really happening in the Valley. It was termed “inconsistent with the fundamental norms of necessity and proportionality” by UN experts.

The knee-jerk reaction by Indian ambassador to the UN in his press conference showed India was not prepared for the UNSC consultative meeting that raised the issue after a long time. The reaction and coverage by the international media was shocking for the Indian government. All major US and UK newspapers and magazines besides other major media painted the lockdown and tensions with Pakistan in a negative manner for New Delhi. They highlighted the curfew across the held Jammu and Kashmir, bringing in massive numbers of troops to enforce restrictions on freedom of movement and of peaceful assembly, particularly in the Kashmir Valley, which has upset the Modi Sarkar.

Also reported by the international media were night raids on private homes leading to the arrests of young people by Indian security forces. The correct assessment by the international media that India will shun its secularism in future and it was the largest democracy in the name only dismayed the Modi government.

Moreover, Trump’s offer of mediation did not sit well with Prime Minister Modi. The Russian and Chinese reactions were also troublesome for New Delhi.

As the issue has international and regional ramifications, it is not going to die away. While the Modi Sarkar has certainly appeased the Hindu nationalists that brought it into power for the second term by revoking Article 370, it does not know what to do in the held Valley in the near future. It may try to stage a drama like Pulwama, heat up the LoC, but that will only aggravate things for the Modi government as international perception that South Asia is reaching a nuclear flash point is being reinforced, especially after Indian defence minister’s imprudent remarks.