Short on water

Concern over water shortages for the ‘kharif’ crops in Pakistan, notably in the provinces of Sindh and Punjab, have been growing over the past few days. The concern arose primarily because of slower glacial melt in northern areas as a result of climate change, which has resulted in cloud cover, hanging over parts of Skardu and other areas from which glacial melt flows into rivers. This had already meant a shortfall in water for crops including cotton, Pakistan's main cash crop and the source of material required to manufacture textile items, which are a major export. In addition, the summer crops or kharif’ crops include sugarcane, maize, and millet. There is a direct danger to these crops because of the water situation.

The problem is made more complicated by an emerging dispute between the provinces. Issues between Sindh and Punjab over the distribution of water have occurred before. They are now cropping up again with Sindh accusing Punjab of putting dams on rivers which stop the inflow of water into Sindh. Punjab, on the other hand, seeks dams because it has a greater capacity to store water compared to Sindh. IRSA, the only forum set up under the 1991 Water Apportionment Accord to determine how water is to be divided between the provinces, has to play a part in this problem. But it has said that misreporting and denial of actual facts by both provinces makes its tasks difficult. It, meanwhile, released water into the Chashma-Jhelum (CJ) and Taunsa-Panjnad (TP) link canals leading to a severe shortage of water at the Kotri Barrage. In a federation such as Pakistan, the federal government and its authorities must take these decisions after timely consultations with the federating units. Sindh as the lower riparian province has been voicing its concerns but has said these have not been taken seriously. When the water flow is controlled by the central government it must come up with a formula to address the apprehensions that the lower riparian may have.

The problem has been a long-standing one. The central government would do better by developing and following a well-articulated and managed strategy to address this issue. No step is advisable without taking into confidence the federating units that bear the brunt of water scarcity resulting from such decisions. The issue also lies in the fact that Pakistan is facing a growing water shortage and could soon fall into the group of countries which are water scarce. Indeed, international agencies have predicted that it would be a water scarce country by 2025 and could be phased out by 2050. This obviously is a frightening prediction. To deal with it we need to build water resources, and initiate dialogue with India about enforcing the Indus Waters Treaty 1960 in which Pakistan says there are violations by India, which has built dams on some of the rivers providing water inflow into Pakistan. At the same time, farmers must also be educated about climate change, so that they can carry out agricultural duties more effectively, and possibly change sowing and harvesting times during the year in keeping with the new and more unpredictable climate change that we face.