A glacial disaster in the making

On August 15, 2020, a teenage girl was killed in a remote village in Chitral as a glacial flood swept away six houses, partially damaging sixteen others and inundating standing crops of wheat and beans. Another 11 people were injured as the local police station and a post of Chitral Scouts were submerged. The glacial flood washed away a stretch of more than 500 meters of road to Baroghil valley as well.

Fast-forward to February 28, 2021 and the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) issues a GLOF (glacial lake outburst flood) warning on the Shishper-Muchuhur glaciers in Hunza. The situation is still developing and a potential GLOF event is expected in May-June 2021 which will put the population in the downstream community of Hassanabad village at risk of glacial flooding. The Shishper-Muchuhur glaciers have a history of flash flooding. The current surge of Shishper, a 25 sq kms glacier in size, has brought its snout as close as four km from the Karakoram highway, a critical route for the CPEC (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor) initiative in the region.

This is the new normal in the everyday life of these remote and impoverished mountain communities. Recurring loss of life, property and livelihood due to natural catastrophes, associated primarily with the changing climate in the region, is only aggravating with every passing year. Even worse, these climatic changes are altering weather patterns in the long term, which are not properly understood by these local communities. Though climate-induced changes encompass a wide range of pressing issues, water is arguably the most essential natural resource at risk.

Pakistan is a unique place: the country hosts 7,200+ glaciers in its North, spread over approximately 17,000 sq km, which is home to the mighty Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya (HKH) mountain ranges. It has reportedly more glacial ice than anywhere on earth outside the polar regions – hence referred to as the third pole. These glaciers feed the rivers that account for around 75 percent of the stored-water supply in a country inhabited by 212+ million people.

Ironically, Pakistan contributes less than one percent to global pollutant emissions, which ranks it among the least emitters. Yet, the country is among the most vulnerable to climate-related hazards like changing monsoon patterns, rapid glacial ice melt leading to inundation and flash flooding, avalanches, landslides and extreme heatwaves. Consequently, climate-induced migration by the local population in mountain and downstream communities of this region to save lives and to look for better livelihood opportunities is a serious challenge. This is the real evidence of the direct human cost of climate change in this part of the world.

Glaciers are a source of freshwater and vital for the ecosystem. As a consequence of climate change and global warming, several glaciers around the world are shrinking in size and gradually retreating. Depending on the volume and size of the glacial lake, temperature and precipitation, and geomorphological parameters of the terrain, mechanical failures may cause a breach in the wall of an ice or moraine-dammed glacial lake. Subsequently, a sudden discharge of millions of cubic meters of meltwater and debris can occur in a short time, with a catastrophic impact on the socioeconomic life of the downstream communities. This phenomenon is referred to as Glacial Lake Outburst Floods or GLOFs.

These GLOFs are a major hazard in high altitude glaciated regions of northern Pakistan. According to a UNDP report, around 3,033 glacial lakes have been identified in this region, with at least 33 critical lakes. Many recent scientific studies are projecting an increase in the frequency of GLOFs in the wake of ongoing climate change and global warming. The government of Pakistan's ‘National Climate Change Policy’ identifies the projected recession of HKH glaciers as a major climate threat, while a key finding of the Asian Development Bank, reported in 2017, is the lack of glacier monitoring infrastructure in Pakistan.

Most of the glaciers in Pakistan are at low altitude and the settlements are near the glaciers. This makes them more vulnerable. Dr Arun Bhakta Shrestha, the regional programme manager for River Basins & Cryosphere at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, has emphasized that even if the GreenHouse Gas (GHG) emissions are reduced to limit the temperature rise as envisioned in the Paris Agreement, a scenario with only a two degree Celsius could still be devastating as two-third of glaciers in the HKH would melt away!

Mitigative measures at local, national and international levels in a coherent manner are immediate imperatives. Mountain and downstream communities settled in these disaster-prone areas are unceasingly at risk and their vulnerabilities are augmented by poverty, lack of awareness about the GLOF threats, increasing pressure on natural resources, and high-risk settlement patterns. At the local level, adaptation to climate change and resilience building through specific initiatives – early warning systems, promotion of clean energy in the mountains, reducing deforestation and land-use regulation – must be enforced. In a country like Pakistan, which lacks essential infrastructure for glacier monitoring, disaster management policies, risk reduction plans, early warning systems and scientific approach and equipment to deal with the new risks and vulnerabilities arising from its natural resources, it is imperative that the international community must come forward and help.

At the moment, the government of Pakistan, through the Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC), and UNDP Pakistan are implementing a $37 million project named Scaling Up of GLOF Risk Reduction in Northern Pakistan (GLOF-II), a continuation of the GLOF-I pilot project, which aims to empower communities to identify and manage risks associated with GLOFs. This project is expanding weather information surveillance by installing 50 automatic weather stations at different locations in the Gilgit-Baltistan region. Though these weather stations will provide information as part of a local-level early warning system, they are limited in scope and scalability for now.

The glaciated region of HKH is vast and stretches over thousands of kilometres across several countries. This third pole necessitates more engagement of the international community through development of local infrastructure, investment in building community resilience, prevention of deforestation, reduction in GHG emissions, application of scientific approach, tools and methods in their study, risk assessment and reduction planning at the regional level, continuous monitoring and integrated analysis of the evolution of glaciers.

The recent summit by US President Biden has made some headway, but there is a real urgency for stronger climate action, limiting planetary warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius as proposed in the Paris Agreement, helping vulnerable countries adapt to climate impacts and discussing opportunities to strengthen capacity to protect lives and livelihoods from the impacts of climate change.

Climate change doesn’t seem to recognize our borders on land and water, and Mother Nature is ruthless when it comes to punishing. Efforts beyond borders, strategic alliances and politics are essential and only an all-inclusive approach can yield desired results.

Dr Khurram Bhatti is associate professor and Dr AdnanSiddique is assistant professor at IT University, Pakistan. They are also 2021 National Geographic Explorers.