Deadline over

The first of February 2021, has come and gone. This was the day the opposition parties forming the 11-party PDM had given as deadline for the government to either resign or face an opposition long march to Islamabad, possibly culminating in the resignation of their members from the assemblies. It is now quite clear that these resignations from the opposition are not going to take place and neither is the government set to move anywhere. It had been noted many times before that there was little chance that the PDM would lead to any major results in terms of overpowering the government. There is very little tradition in Pakistan of popular movements overthrowing a sitting government, except perhaps during the late 1960s. But since then, street movements have not caused governments to fall. Instead, this has happened only when there's a direct desire by the establishment to remove a government from power.

We have seen this happen many times before, when in the 1980s and 1990s the governments of both Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif were overturned in this manner. It is clear however that the PDM had split apart long before February first arrived on the calendar. The PPP for quite obvious reasons had no desire to go into elections given that it would lose the Sindh Assembly which it held and its best chance was to regain that assembly but no other gains were practically possible for it. Perhaps the PML-N saw for itself a chance in the Punjab and very possibly, of those thinking optimistically, even in the centre, but there were obviously not enough people to go ahead with the Long March in bitterly cold weather and then wait it out in Islamabad or hand in resignations in the hope that this would shake the government enough to make a move.

Despite this, PML-N representatives say the movement has not failed and that people are now questioning the PTI government over the price hike and incompetence. This is a highly debatable question. The questions from the public were being asked even before the opposition campaign began. Whether they are being asked with more fervor is something we cannot say for certain. It can also be argued that the government has in fact been strengthened by showing it is able to stand up against opposition rallies and protests. This gives the PTI more power and ability to move ahead, with no obvious signs that any institutional stakeholder is keen to be rid of it. Maulana Fazlur Rahman, the head of the PDM, has now said the battle of the group is against the government and not the establishment. This again is a change from earlier narratives put forward by Nawaz Sharif and, also to some degree, by Maulana Fazal. But for now, it seems the PDM movement has virtually fizzled out. Will it find a second life?