The end game

How will things end as the tussle between the PDM and the PTI government continues? At its meeting on Tuesday, the PDM made it clear that it intended to hand in resignations from the National Assembly and all provincial assemblies, including the Sindh Assembly, by the 31st of December. Prime Minister Imran Khan has responded to this by saying that he will not be moved by the mass walkout from the assemblies should they take place, and will simply call a by-election. Of course, this is not entirely in Imran's hands. The Election Commission has to decide when and how to hold so large a by-election; to be very honest, the whole by-elections exercise seems almost impossible to pull off, and also there are other dangers for the ruling party. With a narrow majority in the National Assembly, the question arises of even a small number of defectors being able to alter a majority in the House and how things could change for the worse for the ruling party.

The real question facing the nation at the moment is how things are going to pan out from this point on. The resignations will come only after the gathering in Lahore and then the long march to Islamabad which is still scheduled to take place. We do not know how this will go, whether there will be attempts to block it or if the government will allow it to proceed. But eventually, some end has to be found to the standoff. It cannot continue endlessly. Imran Khan has suggested he is willing to talk on all issues except the NRO which he insists the PDM is attempting to seek. The PDM has denied this. It has also not backed Imran's claims that if NAB is demolished the opposition will return readily to the assemblies. It is not easy to topple a government. The question also is: what happens post resignations? Has the opposition figured out all scenarios – including one in which one party from the opposition may be coaxed into backing off? What then?

If a new election does indeed become the only way out, will its results be any different to what we have at present? After all, the same manner in which the government was allegedly (as per the opposition) elected this time around may come into play again. There's also a crucial issue of whether members of the establishment will take part in any talks that could be held and what their role will be. There is too much uncertainty at the moment on what is to happen next. On a larger scale it is also true that the uncertainty is damaging the country. The government must play a role in this and persuade the opposition to either move towards talks for a resolution that includes a constitutional path for the country, a truth commission, and an end to institutional interventions in politics.