The new normal

The great thing about normality is that it’s constantly metamorphosing. It’s perception changes steadily with passing time as it is redefined from generation to generation and from age to age.

This is how evolution works. Occasionally this slow and gradual transit is shocked into a sudden alteration of course by an event that forces us into a more urgent and more radical re-orientation of our lives.

The Covid-19 pandemic is one such cataclysmic event that will fundamentally change the way we live and interact, both as societies and as individuals.

The success of working from home will make it one of the new normals. The physical separation between work life and personal life will become more blurred and will be replaced by an oscillation between ‘always-on’ and flextime. Residences will be redesigned to include workstations, while large offices will shrink to house only those functions that cannot be managed from home.

Once the need for working in big city offices declines, the urban landscape will be remapped with migration to the suburbs and their better and more affordable lifestyles. This exodus will also be fueled by health concerns and restrictions on the entertainment and culinary experiences available in big urban centres.

Digital migration will also accelerate and has already begun to do so. It is interesting how a lot of resistance to this has already evaporated as what was previously resisted is now considered central to survival. Applications like Zoom have had a field day with the advent of the virtual office and virtual classrooms. E-learning at schools and colleges and the creation of blended learning environments will modify the education process while digital tools and telemedicine will influence change in healthcare. Mental and emotional issues generated through reduced human contact and isolation will surge.

The way companies and markets operate will also change. While restrictions on travel have limited the mobility of labour, having a workforce that works from home will encourage the global recruitment of talent. This delinking highlights the paradox of online interaction; it creates more distance but also more connection at the same time.

With reduced cross-border movement, this pandemic has exposed the vulnerability of long, stretched supply chains. A resultant backlash against globalization will lead to relocation of manufacturing close to home markets, thus pushing up costs in return for safety and reliability provided by domestic supply chains. Poor countries and emerging economies will feel the brunt of this shift.

Venture capital will begin to dry up as the world’s economies enter the opening stages of a recession. The soft and fragile underbellies of many companies and businesses will be exposed. It is estimated that as many as three hundred million jobs may be lost globally.

On the positive side, the pandemic has forced governments to realize the need to spend significantly more on healthcare and fix antiquated health systems. The reduction in carbon emissions has restored our belief that the ravages wreaked by climate change can be undone and we should make this a global priority.

Pakistan has some additional challenges to face. It had just begun to emerge from its economic woes when the pandemic arrived. By January 2020, the current account deficit had reduced by an impressive 73 percent, fiscal deficit was down to 1.6 percent of GDP, our credit outlook had been revised by Moody’s from negative to stable and on the global ease of doing business rankings we had risen 28 places from 136 to 108. Things looked promising.

The impact of Covid-19 has been harsh. Textiles account for 60 percent of our exports and 70 percent of input requirements for this industry are imported. During the pandemic the prices of imports have escalated by over 35 percent. Along with increased production costs, there is also a significant drop in export orders due to lockdown in Europe.

GDP is expected to grow by 0.98 percent this year. Since our annual population growth rate is 1.8 percent, this means that per capita income will actually decline. Remittances are projected to fall and both the industrial and service sectors are expected to shrink by double digit numbers because of the pandemic. The impact of this will be felt most in the poorer sections of society and in the informal sector of the economy like daily wage workers.

The poverty rate in Pakistan has declined by over 40 percent in the last two decades. It is presently 24.3 percent but both UNDP and the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) predict a very significant rise to over 40 percent, which will push many more millions into food insecurity.

A recent ADP survey shows that 33 percent of farm households in Punjab have reported a loss of income, while 22 percent reported the return of family members from urban centres where they were working.

The government needs to take measures to protect jobs and to ensure the provision of basic services and food security to those most in need. Small and medium-sized businesses require financial stimuli while a significant increase in funding of healthcare and science is also essential for handling Covid-19 and its aftermath. During a crisis steps to promote social cohesion are vital, we’re in the same storm but are we all in the same boat ?

This pandemic is forcing us to design the blueprint for a new world. The shape of the new normal and its timeline will be determined by Covid-19 itself. While Pakistan prepares to adjust to this global change, it has the additional task of facing this challenge with an economy that has been weakened by long years of neglect.

The writer is a senior surgeon, poet and sports aficionado.