Coronavirus: Global death toll could triple in next four months

LONDON: An influential model for predicting the future impact of the coronavirus has suggested global COVID-19 related deaths could triple by the end of the year to 1.9 million – with Europe, Central Asia and the US most at risk, foreign media reported.

The model from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine proved influential in guiding America’s coronavirus task force earlier this year.

Now its predictions – which some have criticised for looking too far into the future – have suggested the total death toll for the virus could stand at 2.8 million by 1 January 2021 unless governments reconsider easing measures designed to mitigate the spread of Sars-Cov-2, the virus which causes COVID-19.

“These first ever worldwide projections by country offer a daunting forecast as well as a roadmap towards relief from COVID-19 that government leaders as well as individuals can follow,” said IHME director Dr Christopher Murray.

“We are facing the prospect of a deadly December, especially in Europe, central Asia, and the United States.

But the science is clear and the evidence irrefutable: mask-wearing, social-distancing, and limits to social gatherings are vital to helping prevent transmission of the virus.”

The institute’s projection of 1.9 million additional deaths was based on its “most likely” scenario – which assumes individual mask wearing and other mitigation measures remain unchanged.

Of those, 38,000 were predicted to come from the UK, while India, the US and Brazil would see the most total death.

However, researchers also modelled for a worst and best case scenario which resulted in a difference of 2 million additional deaths worldwide.