Altaf’s popularity: A myth or reality

A lower middle class man who entered politics from Azizabad and within a few years become the symbol of ‘Muhajir identity’ is now in trouble and so is his party, Muttahidda Qaumi Movement (MQM). Can Altaf Hussain come out of this situation depends on his approach to the present political scenario but without resolving the political dynamics of the rural-urban divide it would be difficult to find an alternate to MQM.
Altaf Hussain reached the peak of his popularity in 1988, when his party swept elections in the urban Sindh. Over the years there have been ups and downs in his popularity graph. Where does he stand today, a plethora of charges against him notwithstanding?
He enjoys a unique place in Pakistani politics. “Quaid-e-Tehreek,” has never contested any election from any platform nor does he hold any office yet his supporters only vote for him. In MQM, individuals have no constituency of their own.
Like late ZA Bhutto he is loved and hated alike. There are people who are ready to die for him and at the same time there are people who hate him and blame him for politics of violence.Another unique feature of his personality has been his speeches. I am a witness to some of his controversial speeches; from 1979-80 fiery speech at the Arts lobby of Karachi University to 1986 Nishtar Park, to a massive public meeting at Mazar-e-Quaid, in the presence of Combined Opposition Parties (COP) leaders to May 19, 2013 address to general workers meeting.
His speech is the last word for his diehard supporters; it set the direction for the party including its policy making body, the Rabita Committee. No major MQM show is complete without his address.
His speeches have created a lot of controversies and at times have become difficult to defend by the party leaders, but they strongly defend his stance in their own ways.Judging Altaf’s popularity graph or decline in support is difficult, but the fact remains that as long as the issue of Muhajirs’ political identity remains Altaf’s popularity graph would continue to see ups and down.
As far as electoral support to MQM is concerned it was at the highest level from 1988 to 1997; the lowest at 2002, when they lost six NA seats in Karachi and one in Hyderabad.Some believe it was the result of anti-US drive spearheaded by Muttahidda Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) an alliance of religious parties. In 2008, MQM got a walkover due to the boycott announced by Jamaat-e-Islami and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf.
However, the 2013 elections were the litmus test for MQM and its chief Altaf Hussain’s popularity. For the first time they felt the presence of PTI in their strong constituencies. Altaf’s frustration was quite visible when he addressed his workers on May 19, six days after elections. What happened in that general workers meeting showed that despite winning major seats, Altaf was not satisfied with the party’s performance as Imran Khan’s party polled more than 800000 votes.
MQM could not recover from this shock and got weakened on the organisational front. Some key party leaders like Mustafa Kamal, Saleem Shahzad, Anis advocate, Anis Kaimkhani and Raza Haroon either left the party or distanced themselves from its activities. Almost all of them now live abroad.
The fallout of 2013 elections also resulted in MQM and Altaf Hussain losing faith in the governor of Sindh, Dr. Ishratul Ibad, who has now completed his record 13 years as governor.But MQM recovered and registered a historic win in NA-246. After a long time its workers really had to work hard for this win and once again the slogan of Muhajir identity united them behind Altaf.
The dilemma of parties like PTI, JI or even PPP is their approach towards the politics of urban Sindh. They have not been able to neutralize the slogan of Mohajir identity. MQM has often gained politically because of the mistakes committed during successive operations against it. But it is also a fact that the party needs some serious soul searching.
It also need to realise that ups and downs are part of the game. Bhutto was not as popular in 1977 as he was in 1970. Benazir’s popularity graph never remained constant. Pakistan’s most popular party, PPP, is today struggling to gain the lost grounds. Imran Khan’s position today is not what it was in 2013.
What MQM need is a change in its political approach while keeping its main strength - identity politics - intact. Today MQM is not criticised for being a party representing the Urdu-speaking people but for its alleged militancy. Right or wrong, this perception has landed MQM in trouble though there are other factors too.
Even 100 FIRs cannot damage any party or its leader but what can damage both is their approach towards politics. If he has zero tolerance for militancy, extortion, he and the party will emerge stronger. Similarly, MQM cases against Imran Khan, Khawaja Asif or Ch. Nisar or FIRs against Nawaz Sharif and Asif Zardari will not help the party.
As for the establishment, it needs to learn a few lessons from the past. The past operations failed not because of operational reasons but when they became politicized. The 1994 operation might have damaged MQM’s ‘militant wing’ but can extra-judicial killings be justified? Secondly, the failure of the State and the previous governments in address the political grievances of this neglected province and the mega city should not be ignored. PPP and MQM can make Sindh the most developed province if they succeed in cleansing the politics of corruption and militancy. Its now or never like situation.
The politics of tit-for-tat FIRs may take a man to the gallows as happened in the case of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto or get someone like Nawaz Sharif convicted or send leaders like Javed Hashmi behind the bars but it cannot lower their popularity. Why PPP was wiped out from three other provinces except Sindh was because of its poor governance and NRO.
Altaf Hussain’s journey from his residence Nine-Zero to London is the story of good and bad politics, but more important is where he stands today and what is the future of the ‘Quaid’ and his party. Altaf Hussain and MQM are political realities that cannot be wished away.
The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of GEO, The News and Jang.