Boom or bust?

Is the world facing a ‘population bust’? This is one of the questions that is being raised after the release of a report on global public health metrics. The figures present a mixed picture between the developing and the developed world, but the overall trend confirms that birth rates are falling. Around 70 years ago, one woman would give birth to an average of around 4.7 children. Now, the average has shrunk to half at around 2.4 children born to each woman. This would suggest that there is a decline in birth rate; however, the current figure of births exists amongst a much larger world population. This is part of the reason why the world’s population still continues to grow by around 84 million each year.

The population growth is skewed. Most developed countries in Europe as well as Japan are facing stagnation in population growth. The consequence is significant demographic change. There will soon not be enough young people to pay for the care of old people in the developed world. This contrasts starkly with birth rates in developing nations, where birth rates have not fallen in line with the national goals.

One of the conclusions that can be gleaned from the report is that there seems more of a case for population transfer and migration than what the current climate of fear of migrants reflects. The trouble with reports such as this is that they only confirm much of what we already know, and offer little in terms of substantive ways to solve the crisis that could be at hand. There is a dual fear: too many people in poor countries, too few people in rich countries. The situation poses a threat to the world as we know it. But the world we know is a world that concentrates wealth in the hands of the few. Perhaps then there is a need for a far greater transfer of resources from the developed world to the developing one – or a need for population transfer. As it stands, it is the developing world that is suffering. The suffering of the first world is only a prediction in the future, which only works for the few developed countries that do offer welfare for the oldest members of society. The report notes that 91 countries are not producing enough children, while birth rates are growing in Asia and Africa. With the UN predicting that there will be more than 10 billion people on Earth by the middle of the century, this poses a serious challenge for those who govern. The solutions will require more open-mindedness than we have seen so far.