Lessons of history

Does history really repeat itself? Does it teach any lessons? Yes, but some people prefer or are predisposed to forget history and when it repeats itself they try to make sense of the new occurrence and most often attribute it to random causes. Einstein had rightly articulated the empirical regularity of the natural phenomenon by saying, “God does not play dice with the universe”.
As the physical world is ostensibly governed by natural laws and can be discovered through scientific methods the social phenomenon governed by immutable principles can also be dug out through a dispassionate and detached study of history.
The problem, however, is a general tendency to misinterpret the truism ‘let bygones be bygones’ and that ‘every socio-economic context is unique andh requires tailor-made intervention’ but the fact is that there is no alternative to accumulated wisdom in dealing with complex problems a nation confronts.
To understand what history teaches does not necessarily requires deep excavation into the distant past. One can discern common patterns in apparently sporadic and random events to make sense of the rise and fall of nations.
The former USSR is a case in point. It crumbled into pieces despite its formidable army, powerful rulers, extended geography, and huge natural deposits. Communism, which posed a serious threat to capitalism and promised a utopian society, proved good on paper but was a mirage in reality. The state had become too powerful to be tamed through any means including the law of the land. The economy was too weak to sustain a vast military and intelligence infrastructure at home and sponsor communist projects abroad.
Pakistan has a lesson to learn from the USSR’s story. It cannot afford long-drawn wars and overdependence on others. It cannot live on ventilators for long.
What was once Great Britain, which extended from the east to the west, has now receded into a small territory. Its fall was nowhere in sight before World War II and it was considered invincible thanks to its established industry, strong bureaucracy, and disciplined fighting force. But it failed to adapt to the changing socio-political circumstances. Tradition killed the spirit of change and innovation in industry as well as bureaucracy. For Pakistan, there is another lesson to learn from history, i.e. the need to modernize – to relate conventional wisdom to contemporary reality.
China, though its old civilisation, has had a chequered history. During its long journey, it witnessed a few golden ages marked by economic development, social harmony, and knowledge creation but it also had to experience tough times as a result of civil strife, foreign aggression, and frequent famines.
As of today, China is poised to become a global power. Since the 1970s, it has continued to record an unprecedented economic growth of about nine percent percent every year. It has lifted its population from dismal poverty by investing in infrastructure and human resources.
There may be some kind of political alienation and restrictions on individual freedom but the benefits of its unique model so far overweigh the costs. Pakistan has a lesson to learn from its neighbour: harnessing human capital, peaceful coexistence with neighbours, and above all developing effective institutions.
The writer teaches at FAST-NU, Peshawar.
Email: zeb.khan@nu.edu.pk