New partnerships

While it is not yet clear if the new Janoobi Punjab Suba Mahaz, consisting of at least 20 persons who recently parted ways with the ruling PML-N, has agreed to merge or merely ally itself with the PTI for the upcoming election, this is in many ways only a detail. While spokespersons for the PTI and JPSM have given somewhat contradictory statements over the matter, it is clear that JPSM members, including five members of the National Assembly and 13 members of the Punjab Assembly, will be joining forces with the PTI as the time comes for the polls. This could create a hugely important bloc of seats for the political forces opposing the PML-N, with many of the JPSM leaders holding positions of power within their respective constituencies. This will obviously enable them to bring in votes which bolster the PTI’s overall position on the basis of their own standing. The JPSM includes veteran leaders such as Balakh Sher Mazari and the experienced Makhdoom Khusro Bakhtiar. Also included within its ranks are those who belong to powerful political clans and – regardless of political affiliation – would bring votes with them when polling gets underway. The impact of this new development on the PML-N’s standing in its power base province of Punjab could be significant. In political circles speculation continues that others may join the group very soon.

The Memorandum of Understanding signed between the PTI and JPSM agrees to the creation of a new province in southern Punjab. Leaders who met for the signing say this is essential to balance out socio-economic discrimination within Punjab and distribute resources more evenly. Imran Khan has lashed out against the current PML-N leadership, alleging that 60 percent of the entire provincial budget is currently allocated to Lahore neglecting other parts of the province. Any move to carve out a separate province from Punjab would of course have a significant impact on the federation as a whole. The idea of a province in southern Punjab has been tabled before and has some support in the region that constitutes the area.

The gambit which led to the new group being created is therefore one with potentially long-reaching consequences. Much will depend on how successfully the new linkage can be held together. When the time comes to distribute tickets some conflict between PTI members and those from the JPSM seems inevitable. It is also a fact that Imran Khan has not always stayed true to the promises he has made. Future discussions on precisely how this new partnership will work could determine how major its role in the 2018 election is to be. Its emergence, however, comes as a blow to the PML-N which may now have to rethink strategy to prevent other defections from its ranks ahead of an election that may be determined by individual loyalties rather than any broader ideology or manifesto.