Lebanon votes under new rules to keep old guard in power

BEIRUT: Lebanese will have a first opportunity in nine years to vote in a general election on May 6 under new rules, expected to bring some changes to parliament but preserve a unity government combining its main political blocs.

A smooth election and the swift formation of a new government are not only important for Lebanon’s political stability but also to bolster a weak economy that is in dire need of reforms and investment.

The new voting system has generated uncertainty in some districts, but Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri, a Sunni Muslim, looks likely to form another unity government that includes Iran-backed Shi’ite movement Hezbollah.

WHO ARE THE LIKELY WINNERS AND LOSERS?

Though Hariri is expected to remain the biggest Sunni figure in parliament and keep his job, many analyses predict his parliamentary bloc will lose seats. Hezbollah, which is heavily armed, may emerge stronger, though there is little prospect of it and its allies securing the two-thirds majority needed to dominate the state. Hariri has called for a new government to be formed swiftly to press ahead with reforms to put public finances on a sustainable path.

WHAT’S CHANGED SINCE THE LAST ELECTION?

Last time Lebanese voted for a new parliament in 2009, Hezbollah and its allies campaigned in a “March 8” bloc against Hariri and his allies in a “March 14” bloc. The two blocs argued mainly over Hezbollah’s big arsenal of weapons. Syria’s civil war from 2011 aggravated Lebanese political divisions and led to years of paralysis. Hezbollah grew stronger as it deployed in Syria.

“March 14” meanwhile gradually disintegrated as it stood powerless in the face of Hezbollah’s military power and as Hariri’s main backer, Saudi Arabia, turned its focus elsewhere.