A permanent shift?

Relations between Pakistan and the US plunged to an all-time low after US President Donald Trump’s Twitter outburst against Pakistan on January 1. Subsequent actions by the US president to block dispersal of most aid to the country only made matters worse. The optimist’s view would be that ties had reached such a low that the two countries would have no option but to give diplomacy a chance lest the relationship be abandoned altogether. That is exactly what the US and Pakistan have now tried to do with the visit of Alice Wells, the US State Department’s Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs’ principal deputy assistant secretary. Wells met with the civilian leadership during her stay in Pakistan and had some encouraging words to offer. She acknowledged the sacrifices Pakistan has made in fighting militancy, and pointed to intelligence-sharing and working towards a political settlement in Pakistan as ways in which the two countries could have a productive partnership. Her visit was a sign that the two countries will not entirely go their own way yet. But no amount of diplomatic niceties can change the fact that there has been an irrevocable change in ties. Wells has pointed out that there has been a shift to a new relationship, one where the US is engaged with us only so long as it is in its own interests. While that has always been a staple of US foreign policy, the Trump administration has been more open about it.

For Pakistan, too, there is now less of a need to be stuck in a relationship that is no longer working for the country. After Wells’ visit, Foreign Minister Khawaja Asif said that we will have to survive without US aid so that we never again have to hear the taunts and insults of the US. The truth is that Pakistan is far less reliant on US aid than before, with China having stepped into the breach. We also need to understand that such diplomatic exchanges do not change the reality that American interests in the region are irrevocably tilted towards India. That was amply demonstrated by the fact that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was visiting India while Wells was in Karachi. The US-Israel-India nexus, focused on trade, investment and security cooperation, is a reminder that in today’s world US alliances have a decidedly anti-Pakistan nature. In India, Netanyahu has drawn common cause with India, saying both India and his own country face the problem of Islamist extremists. For these two countries, ‘Islamist extremism’ is the euphemism used to violently suppress the liberation movements in Palestine and Kashmir. India is also determined to convince the world that Pakistan is the prime sponsor of terrorism in the region, something it will now do with the backing of the US and Israel. Against this backdrop, any improvements in our relations with the US are likely to be temporary and not lead to any genuine breakthroughs.