Silent right-wing revolution

Democracy has its own positives and challenges as it often bring change in the thinking and mindsets, misconceptions. Many religious extremist parties till the last elections considered democracy, Constitution and vote as liberal concepts. With the passage of time change has come in their attitudes. We may now see some of them in 2018 elections. At least, they will not stop their followers from casting their vote.

Now whether it will transform into a more tolerant and democratic society will be a challenge for all. But democracy also means accepting dissent and respect for dissenting voices – ‘dalil ka jawab dalil say’. Therefore, the major challenge will be in the approach towards others. It will also be a challenge for the mainstream moderate parties. They also need to have a counter narrative. Mere criticism on right wing or religious parties for the sake of criticism may not help. Therefore, transformation is needed through debates on issues.

Pakistan's major issues today are growing poverty, unemployment, corruption, quality education, health care, clean water, feudalism, terrorism and extremism. No party liberal or secular, right wing or religious have a programme to eradicate these. So far their programme only revolves around slogans and speeches.

The State also has a role to play. The establishment’ decades-old policies, particularly in the post-1980s, had only increased extremism, intolerance, gun and drug culture and undemocratic practices. Bringing outlawed or extremist parties, groups into mainstream politics through elections may not be a bad concept but will this change help in the mindset or thinking is yet to be seen.

Many believe that with the failures of the mainstream national parties like PPP and PML-N at the Centre and parties like MQM or nationalists in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the vacuum is there for the right wing religious parties, provided they join mainstream politics, accept liberal concept of democracy, Constitution and vote, women's participation.

The 2028 elections could be the turning point and thousands of those who in the past had not voted for any party, being the followers of anti-democratic mindset, would now pose a challenge even for right to centrist or centre-right parties. The PML-N in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa may face the biggest challenge but it may not be easy for the PTI either.

The last two elections (2008 and 2013) started changing the very mindset. Even in 2002 elections under retired Gen Pervez Musharraf, when he increased the number of women seats, the JUI-F found itself in a difficult position as it never had any women wing like that of JI.

Beside the State, the parties, which have worked in changing this rigid mindset, included JUI (both groups), JI and JUP. The parties always opposed to this democratic concept in the past include JuD, Hizbut Tehrir, Tehreek-e-Nifaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TNFSM), Tanzeem-e-Islami, Tehreek ul Umma. While led by Maulana Sufi Mohammad was even opposed to the Constitution, 1973, others were not very convinced that change can come through democracy.

Most of these parties were also opposed to electronic media and their appearance on TV screen or taking photographs. Today, except for two or three groups, all have now decided to participate in the elections or would not stop their supporters/ followers going to the polling stations.

In 2013, Difa-e-Pakistan Council (DPC) could not participate in the elections because JUD’s Hafiz Saeed and Ansul Umma of Maulana Fazlur Rehman Khalil opposed it.

Few years back, Hafiz Saeed become flexible enough to appear on TV, but the JUD about a year ago decided to take part in the elections through its political face, from the platform of Milli Muslim League MML. They have challenged the recent decision of ECP, which refused to register the party, in Islamabad High Court.

Sources in JUD and MML say even if they do not get registration, they would ask their followers to vote for the DPC-backed candidates.

Well informed sources disclosed that the establishment and the State institutions, beside the parties like JUI and JI, play an important role in changing these mindsets and they decided to bring these forces into mainstream politics a few years back.

However, some jihadi and tableeghi groups are still not very convinced and believe it is against the basic principles. They also think that it would affect the jihad narrative and their struggle in Afghanistan and Kashmir.

Tehreek-e-Labaik Yahya Rasool Allah or Tehreek-e-Labaik Pakistan is not a new phenomenon except their hard-line approach. The followers of these groups in the past remained associated with parties and groups like JUP and Sunni Tehreek. But even in the past, they use to vote and even opposed to Jihad in Afghanistan in 1980.

Some believe that this rising force is aimed at countering Taliban and Daesh factor, while others believe that both TLYRL and MML would badly damage PML-N, Kashmiri and Barelvi vote bank.

In the past, many hard-line religious groups believed in Taliban-like change as happened in Afghanistan but then realised that the majority of Pakistan is opposed to the very narrative and that was one of the reasons why an average Pakistani, despite strong faith, never voted for religious parties because he considered most of them as parties with sectarian outlook.

The JUI because of its strong and historic background always plays its cards well since the days of late Maulana Mufti Mahmood. It is never shy of joining hands with liberal and secular parties without compromising on their principles. In 1972, the JUI and the left wing NAP formed coalition governments in the than NWFP and Balochistan.

Even today, the JUI-F led by Mufti Mahmood's son Maulana Fazlur Rehman, despite an electoral setback in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa at the hands of centre-right PTI, is still the most powerful right wing religious party. It still has the highest number of madrasas and influence in the country.

Not many have noticed or investigated the reasons behind the target killings of many JUI-F leaders and activists in the last two or three years. Maulana Fazlur Rehman too twice survived suicide attacks. The JUI-F leaders believe it is also linked to rise in its narrative that change can come through democracy and elections.

The JI, on the other hand, is Pakistan's most organised party since the days of its founder Maulana Maudoodi. But the JI, because of a strict code on its membership could not progress much on electoral front.

Among the mainstream political parties, one group of the PML has always been centre-right or the right-to-centre approach. The PPP, ANP, MQM, PSP or even nationalist parties are considered as liberal parties.

Prior to the elections in 2008 and 2013, some serious debates took place among these parties and the religious parties alliances and several other parties not only stayed away from polls but also refused to allow their followers to even cast vote on their own.

The major dilemma of the right wing and religious parties has been their division both as sectarian groups and at the leadership level. Even within the same sects, they have differences over political role and leadership.

In the next few months, we may see more than three major alliances of religious parties. The DPC led by Maulana Samiul Haq has already decided to join hands with the PTI. The chances of reviving MMA and the Sunni Ulema Council are also there and these groupings would also have to decide which way they will go. The TLYRA led by Khadim Hussain Rizvi hasn’t yet decided whether to contest elections independently or to become part of any coalition or alliance.

We are certainly heading towards a silent right-wing revolution irrespective of the outcome of 2018 polls, but will it also make society more tolerant and less extremist is a challenge to everyone.

The writer is a columnist and analyst of GEO, The News and Jang.  

Twitter: @MazharAbbasGEO