Cotton output maydrop to 12.6 million bales on Punjab lows

LAHORE: Cotton production is feared to plunge to 11 million bales during the current season against the revised target of 12.6 million bales as the country’s key crop producing province Punjab is likely to deliver an output setback, officials said on Thursday.

The officials said there is a further decline in cotton output compared with the already downward revised estimates as Punjab’s output failed to pick up despite hefty increase in the acreage.

The revised cotton production forecast was 12.6 million bales of 170kg each – a way below the original output target of 14.04 million bales for 2017/18. The harvest in Punjab, which contributes around 70 percent to national production, is projected to be at almost the same level achieved last year despite nearly a 20 percent increase in area under cultivation.

Pakistan, which is the world’s fourth largest cotton producing country, falls short of around four million bales a year to meet the local demand of nearly 16 million bales. Industry officials said the much-touted off-season management by the Punjab Agriculture Department failed to yield positive results in terms of increasing the output of silver fiber.

A senior official of Punjab Agriculture Extension Wing said a downward trend in cotton arrival’s data suggested low productivity this year. The official added that Punjab’s cotton output would hover around the last year’s production. “Cotton output figures are still not final.”

The Central Cotton Advisory Committee’s meeting, scheduled early 2018, is expected to present the final cotton estimate. The United States Department of Agriculture estimated Pakistan’s 2017/18 cotton production at 10.55 million bales of 170kg each and it would be up around 0.6 million bales from the last year.

Harvested area is estimated at 2.8 million hectares this year, which is up 0.4 million hectares from last year. The yield is estimated at 638 kilograms per hectare, down nine percent from the last year.

Cotton ginning industry also expects around 11 million bales of cotton output this year. A ginner said a ‘sharply-slowing’ pace of arrivals supported the forecast of a reduced crop. The decrease in cotton output in Punjab has baffled many as a considerable area was brought back to cotton crop this year.

The off-season management was termed by officials as a solution for all ills of cotton crop. The government also praised it during the last meeting held to asses cotton output. An official commended the efforts of Punjab’s off-season management, aiming at delaying cotton sowing till April in order to avoid pest attack.

The official said dent in cotton production, despite achieving higher area under cultivation, was due to climate change. The erratic rains, especially in the cotton sowing belt during crucial period of crop coupled with extreme temperature led to decline in yield, he added.

An increase in cotton production was expected due to increase in area as well as a record package announced by the government. The Rs70 billion support package of federal as well as Punjab governments promised subsidies both on urea and diammonium phosphate, concession in interest rates, reduction in electricity tariffs for tube well pumps and taxation incentives. However, it appears that all these input support have not yielded desired results.