Census 2017 rules out early polls

ISLAMABAD: The political parties demanding early polls may end up helping the formulation of a caretaker set-up for a longer period as the census 2017 has almost ruled out the possibility of early polls.

The standoff between the government and the opposition in the Senate over constitutional amendment, required for on-time general elections in August next year on the basis of 2017 census, may delay the election 2018 but it can’t be held early.

Early polls can only be held on the basis of 1998 census but it would be unacceptable to KP, Balochistan and Islamabad Capital Territory as they are bound to gain additional seats in the National Assembly on the basis of the 2017 census.

The option of holding elections on the basis of 1998 census may suit Punjab but it would be like depriving KP, Balochistan and ICT of their due representation in parliament. Even if the political parties, PTI and PPP and the provincial governments particularly KP and Balochistan, agree to have less representation in the National Assembly, this case is bound to go to the court of law.

Any legal mind could easily assess what a court of law would decide in such a matter as the census 2017 has already been carried out and created additional representation for KP, Balochistan and ICT. Because of this scenario, holding of elections on the basis of the 1998 census is almost impossible now.

The official result of the census 2017 will be announced in April next year. The provisional result of the latest census, however, has already been announced. According to the Constitution, general elections would be held on the basis of last officially announced census. As of today, the last officially announced census is of 1998 whereas the census 2017 will be officially notified in April 2018.

The constitutional amendment bill, which has been passed by the National Assembly but facing a standoff in the Upper House, makes way for holding the 2018 polls on the basis of 2017 census while ensuring that the delimitation of the electoral constituencies is completed by the Election Commission of Pakistan on the basis of provisional results of the 2017 census to avoid delay in the next general elections.

The process of delimitation will take five to six months. If the constitutional amendment bill is not passed by the Senate, the delimitation process will start after the April 2018 notification of 2017 census. It would mean that the delimitation of constituencies will be completed by September-October 2018 only after which the election schedule would be announced.