Wins and worries

Sunday’s       by-election in Lahore’s NA-120 constituency was never a fight between the PML-N’s Kulsoom Nawaz and the PTI’s Dr Yasmin Rashid. The two candidates were merely stand-ins for Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan. NA-120 has always been a PML-N stronghold and there was no doubt it would hold on to the seat which it has     held for some three decades. With the entire family of Nawaz Sharif currently engaged in a major battle for survival,   the question was how much the ruling party’s margin of victory was reduced.  Ultimately, Kulsoom Nawaz beat Rashid by 12 percentage points, a significant drop of 14 percentage points since the 2013 elections – even though turnout was rather low, considering how much media attention was lavished on the race. The PTI, in particular, would have been expected to be motivated to turn in droves even as the PML-N support base could be expected to be disheartened by its recent judicio-political setbacks.     As many analysts have pointed out, in the wake of the controversial Supreme Court verdict against Nawaz Sharif, this can be seen as essentially a resounding victory for the former prime minister and his family. Still, the PML-N should be somewhat concerned about the fact that the margin of victory was reduced    from over 40,000 votes in 2013, when Nawaz Sharif himself contested the seat, to around 14,000 votes on Sunday’s by-election.     

The presence of 44 candidates – including those affiliated with sanctioned right-wing parties and organisations – for this one seat has fuelled speculations that it might be a deliberate attempt to divide the vote-bank to hurt the PML-N and save the PTI from the embarrassment of losing with a larger margin. Right or wrong, in view of our long history of electoral and political maneuvers made possible by the perennial institutional imbalance, and in view of the political events since 2013, such speculations in a peculiar situation such as this were   perhaps inevitable.      As      a potential trend we will need to watch ‘Situation 44’ with some care. Some of the candidates collected votes    in single digit figures, some none at all. If nothing else, it was obviously ridiculous that so many candidates were in the field for a by-election that seems to have been a tough battle even for the two mainstream parties contesting.

Now, in typical style, and as a way of masking its own electoral deficiencies,    the PTI has immediately made allegations of rigging against the PML-N. Such responses to electoral defeat from the PTI have now become so customary that it is hard to take them seriously.   The PML-N too has complained about its supporters being “picked up” and its voters obstructed while the media and election observers have complained of being denied access to polling       stations. As far as the PTI is concerned, it was contesting against a candidate whose illness meant she wasn’t even in the country.       The only member of the Sharif family who could campaign was Maryam Nawaz, herself facing possible court cases. Yet, the PTI wasn’t able to drive up turnout and come close to a victory.     The PML-N’s strategy of shoring up its supporters through the GT Road rally seems to have worked to the extent that it hasn’t bled away too much support.   We may now expect the next general election to be a much closer affair, although this was only one by-election and there is no guarantee these trends will hold till next year.         

Spoiler candidates aside, it is clear that in 2018, Punjab is once again going to be fought for in real terms by the PML-N and the PTI.   Faisal Mir of the PPP collected just  around 2000 votes,   suggesting how far the party has fallen since that time in 1988 when it was a principal contender for all seats in Lahore. A higher number of votes were in fact collected by Muhammad Yaqub Sheikh.         Even though Sheikh’s surety bond was forfeited – along with other parties including the PPP’s Mir – the entry and relative success of this ‘independent’ candidate backed by the newly-formed Milli Muslim League,       the political wing of the Jamaat-ud-Dawa, has got many people thinking.    The MML has reportedly only now applied for registration.          As important as the battle for supremacy between the PML-N and the PTI may be, the space being given to or taken by such groups should be food for thought. The judgment of the people, though, for now – and to the extent it can be seen in one constituency – is clear enough.