Another survey shows PML-N’s edge over PTI in NA-120

ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz enjoys a comfortable edge over the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf in the NA-120 by-election, as over 53 percent voters surveyed by Gallup Pakistan say they would vote for the PML-N, 29 percent say they would opt for the PTI, while 4 percent were in the favour of PPP.

According to a Gallup Pakistan Pre-Election Survey conducted in NA-120 with a representative sample of 1,500 voters, the voting trends from Election 2013 appear to be maintained in NA-120 and the by-poll outcome on September 17 may not be very different from the results of 2013 general election on this seat.

The crux of the survey is that 53 percent of those surveyed said that they intend to vote for the PML-N followed by 29 percent who favoured the PTI, 4 percent said the PPP while 1 percent said Jamaat-e-Islami. 

Four percent favoured other parties or independents. 9% of the respondents either say they had not made up their mind or they will note vote or they refused to answer the question.

51% of females compared to 55 percent of males said they would vote for the PML-N, showing that the PML-N was slightly more popular among men in this constituency than among women voters.

This is also true for the PTI where 31 percent of males surveyed say they would vote for the PTI compared to 28 percent females who said they would vote for the PTI. Younger age bracket (18-30) appears to be slightly more supportive of the PTI.

Among 18-30 age group, 33 percent say they would vote for the PTI, 50 percent say they would vote for the PML-N. In other words, the margin between PML-N and PTI among this age group is 17 percent compared to 24 percent gap among voters of different ages.

39% of BA pass voters say they intend to vote for the PTI, whuile 47 percent say they intend to vote for the PML-N.

The survey shows that as education level of respondents rises the support for PML-N declines sharply and support rises for PTI. Among Higher Education (defined as Bachelors or above) respondents surveyed in this pre-election survey, the gap between PML-N and PTI narrows to 8 percent (however the PML-N is still in lead).

Among the BA plus education and 18-30 age group, the survey shows that PML-N and PTI are equally popular.   44 percent of 18-30 age group, who also possessed BA or more education, said they would vote for the PTI and a similar proportion said they would vote for the PML-N.

Interestingly, among male 18-30 age group and BA plus education segment of the voters, PTI is actually in lead.  51 percent of males in 18-30 age group who also possessed BA degree said they would vote for PTI while 41 percent said they would vote for the PML N, leading to a 10 percent lead in favour of PTI within this demography.

In other words, if the by-election was conducted among 18-30 BA pass voters only, PTI and PML-N had equal chances of winning (44% each).  If the by-election was held among male 18-30 and BA pass voters, PTI may actually win the elections by a considerable margin.

It may be noted that it is the overlap and cross cutting of age, education and gender among voters which lead to turning of the tables in support of PTI in NA-120.  Individually, each of the three demographic groups i.e. age, education and gender show similar voting patterns as to the general voting trends in the constituency. 

For logical reasons, however, the cross cutting and overlap i.e. being male, 18-30 age group and possessing a BA degree is a relatively smaller demographic group of voters and therefore overall PML-N has a significant lead over the PTI.