There may be horse trading in KP,Balochistan for Senate polls

ISLAMABAD: Horse trading cannot be ruled out during the Senate elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Balochistan, unless all the major parties in the two assemblies avoid elections and get their respective candidates elected un-opposed. On the other hand, Punjab and Sindh will have smooth sailing as PML-N will grab all in Punjab seats while PPP and other parties may agree on the sharing formula in the province.
KP chief minister in a bid to avoid horse trading may hold negotiations with PML-N and other parties on the formula through which candidates would get elected unopposed knowing well that secret ballot in the Senate could open the gate for horse trading. PTI facing dissent from within.
However, Sheikh Rasheed Ahmad, an alley of Imran Khan, is against holding any negotiations with PML-N saying it could damage party’s principled position against Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.
The fact remained that due to Imran’s past strategy, the PTI has lost the major bargaining position and could have got at least one seat from Punjab had they not resigned. Resignation from National Assembly, Punjab and Sindh assemblies had damaged them politically.
Following is the likely scenario emerging from March 2 Senate elections on 51 seats with chances of horse trading quite imminent in the two provinces.
The PML-N will consolidate its position in the Senate. It will easily get its chairman and deputy chairman elected. This will be for the first time since general elections 2013 that the PPP would lose its grip in the Senate as they have already been confined to Sindh.
Some sources within PML-N hinted that the chairman could be from KP while deputy chairman would either be from Balochistan or Punjab. PML-N is also considering nominating a woman as deputy chairman.
PPP, despite having good representation after March 2, would still be short of getting any of its candidates elected as chairman or deputy chairman as its previous alleys like MQM would not support PPP. ANP, PML-Q and JUI-F seats would be reduced after the elections.
It would be interesting to watch whether PML-N would offer MQM to join the government in case they decided that both chairman and deputy chairman should be from PML-N.
But, the last visit of the PM to Karachi, was a little disappointing for the MQM, as instead of taking Sindh government to task, he appreciated the efforts of Sindh Chief Minister Syed Qaim Ali Shah for maintaining law and order.
However, interesting scenario could emerge in case consensus is not reached among the ruling and opposition parties in Balochistan and KP. In Sindh If PPP makes a settlement for six seats, chances are there all 11 seats would go uncontested and will be shared by three major parties as PPP will get six seats, MQM four and PML-F one.
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) chief Imran Khan is a worried man as he suspects that his MPAs could be bought. His worries linked with the reports about “dissidents” within the party and these differences can deepen if proper ticket distribution does not take place in the party.
Imran’s disclosure about the offers which MPAs are getting is more related to his own party and if that happens, PTI can get an upset result from KP where they are expecting at least six seats.
Therefore, PTI intends to adopt a different though illegal formula, to check its MPAs. They may be asked to provide evidence that they have voted for PTI candidates. In the past such practice was adopted in the Balochistan Assembly, where some MPAs took photograph of the ballot papers from their cell phone.
Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) an alley of PTI in KP is confident of getting two general seats but they too are worried about the final outcome in the KP.
It will be interesting to watch who would file nominations from KP and the possible strategy of the opposition comprising PML-N, JUI-F, PPP (Sherpao), ANP and others.
PTI’s Parlimentary Board has to decide about the final list of candidates in the next two or three days but the pressure on Imran Khan is mounting as there is clear dissent in the party from KP against Jehangir Tareen and Azam Swati. Mr Tareen did the right thing, when he announced he would not contest for Senate. His announcement has eased the pressure.
In case of any upset in the elections, Imran Khan would come really hard against such MPAs and would seek their resignation.
Differences within PTI in KP have widened in the last a couple of months with dissidents having serious complaints against Chief Minister Pervaiz Khattack and leaders like Shoukat Yusufzai having problems with Jehangir Tareen.
Although PTI is still the strongest party in the KP and people still have trust in Imran Khan but they are having problems within the party and if not resolved can cost Imran at least one seat if not more in the Senate elections.
Therefore, in order to ensure that his MPAs will vote for PTI candidates only, Khan has asked PTI members to provide him with evidence that they have not dissented from party’s decision.
But, some sources in the party believe that this would not have positive impact in the party, because it will be illegal and against the sanctity of the ballot and that MPAs would feel that Khan has no trust in them.
In Balochistan, PML-N, National Party (NP) and Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP) may not be having many problems in getting their due share but differences among the ruling coalition can open the door for big horse trading. The province has a poor track record of political commitments and change of loyalties in the assembly.
NP led by Chief Minister Dr Abdul Malik is also facing criticism within the party of giving too many positions to Pakhtoon-dominated Mahmood Khan Achkzai’s party while NP also having problems with PML-N.
In Sindh, none other than Sindh Assembly Speaker Aga Siraj Durrani is violating the Constitution, rules and procedures by not sending the resignation of the four PTI MPAs to the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) though he had accepted them at the floor of the Sindh Assembly. Whoever took the decision in the party to accept PTI’s four MPAs resignations, miscalculated the outcome in the Senate elections.
He simply can’t withhold the resignation now. Therefore, any afterthought could jeopardise the elections, if any of the four MPAs or all showed disloyalty to the party. Even if the resignations were sent to the ECP after March, and by-elections were held, PPP unlikely to get any of the seats as all the seats belong to Karachi.
PPP could have adopted the PML-N tactics in the National Assembly, by withholding the resignations of PTI MPAs.
The united front of MQM, PML-N, PML-F, NPP (about whom I had written about a week back) comprising some 64 MPAs against PPP’s 91 is aimed at having five seats while PPP will get six and PML-F one.
This scribe has learnt that PPP leader Rehman Malik, who is most likely to retain his senate seat, failed in breaking the anti-PPP front which could have given one more seat. An MQM source accused Malik of trying to play Sindhi card with PML-F but so far it stands with the alliance.
Opposition in the Sindh Assembly now has some heavy weights like two former chief ministers, Arbab Ghulam Rahim and Liaquat Jatoi, while another former chief minister, Syed Ghous Ali Shah, is also backing the anti-PPP front though his differences with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif have not yet resolved.
The PML-N leadership in the Sindh Assembly does not follow the party discipline and it is one of the reasons that PML-N candidates for the Senate from Sindh have applied on Punjab quota like PML-N Sindh President Saleem Zia and Nihal Hashmi.
For Asif Ali Zardari known as gamer changer, the chess game is getting a bit difficult this time. Therefore, he can give walkover to PML-N in the elections for Senate chairman and deputy chairman to gain some more goodwill. But, all this will emerge after March 2.