Panama factor may have little impact on the changing political scenario in Karachi, as the politics of this mega city has always been different and national politics hardly win from here when it comes to 'vote’. Will it be different time, if so, in whose favour, as political parties have geared up their organisational work.
One thing is certain and that is, for the first time since 1988, Karachi result will not be predictable. Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), which has emerged as a strong party on national scene, has not performed well since 2013 elections. Perhaps, it has missed the opportunity to fill the vacuum, created after united MQM's disastrous split and its fallout.
Real politics will take off at a fast pace after the SC verdict, but in Karachi, things are already shaping up for a change. Parties have started opening their offices and also holding local meetings.
The PPP, after back-to-back by-elections win, is optimistic to do better in general elections, while the MQM-Pakistan is working hard to retain its strong constituencies and colleagues. The PTI leaders are also confident that if the SC verdict goes in their favour, its natural impact will also be seen in Karachi. Much will also depend on the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP). If it decides to go according to census 2017, Karachi politics may see lots of surprises.
A senior PTI leader, Naimul Haq, told this writer that Imran Khan will spend a week in Karachi after the Panama verdict to reorganise Karachi PTI. “I know we should have done more as Karachi is an important city and the present situation suits us. So, Imran will go to the city after the SC verdict,” he said.
Parties like Jamaat-e-Islami, which once controlled city politics, are facing continuous decline in support for one reason or the other. Even in the local governments elections, its performance was not up to the mark. What possible change can come in the aftermath of MQM's organisational disaster as its prime party venue, Nine-Zero, Azizabad had been shut down and all chances for its reopening wiped out due to the MQM founder’s alleged anti-Pakistan stance. For all practical purposes, it’s a defunct party, but can still play a role of spoiler for its former colleagues, which can go in favour of other parties like the PPP, JI or the PTI.
Therefore, future politics in District Central, West, East and Korangi will be interesting to watch. Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), the party which has always emerged as a sole representative of Karachi since 1988, is facing multiple problems since the launch of Karachi operation and most serious division, which had divided the party in three main groups, MQM-Pakistan, MQM-London and Pak-Srazameen Party (PSP).
The MQM-London politics has left its supporters and voters in utter confusion and the future of Karachi politics and elections will determine where it stands. In PS-114, despite its boycott appeal, the MQM-P candidate still got 18,000 votes against the PPP winner, 23,000. This difference still gives some hope to the MQM-P for doing better in the general elections.
But, one of the major inner problems which the MQM and even the PSP will face would be in selection of candidates. It would be interesting to note that some most prominent leaders of the two parties have dual nationality, and may not be able to contest. It was one of the reasons why the MQM faced problems in PS-114, as its potential candidate from the constituency now has dual nationality.
In the aftermath of 1992 operation, hundreds of the MQM leaders and workers went into exile and when things went bad to worse in 1994, most of them decided to stay back, and in the process acquired dual nationality.
Therefore, in the next general elections, the MQM and PSP may have to pick new and unknown faces as their candidates. Since this time, they would not be asking for votes in the name of any leader; they will be on their own, a real test for them. As one political analyst put it in these words: "The party, which once used to fight for Muhajir identity, now have leaders, who have dual nationality."
The MQM-P and PSP also have other problems too, which has also kept them away from each other and all attempts to bring them on one platform have failed.
The recent targeted killing of two PSP activists includes a former MQM sector in-charge of Orangi Town. Situation is more tense now. PSP Chairman Mustafa Kamal while blamed MQM founder, he also criticised the MQM-P for allegedly playing role of B-team of MQM-L, the charge which Dr Farooq Sattar denied.
It appears as Mustafa Kamal now wants the whole MQM, both London and Pakistan, out before the next general elections. While he is ready to accept MQM-P key leaders minus Aamir Khan and some others, he wanted them to abandon the word MQM.
The MQM-P leaders, on the other hand, termed this reaction of Mustafa Kamal as sign of nervousness from a man who was brought to replace MQM, is yet to deliver accordingly.
This scenario suited to the PPP, which is also in power and though victory in the last two by-elections from the constituencies which the MQM had won in 2013, the PPP and Sindh government are coming with some change strategy to gain in Karachi, from what they did in the last elections or since 1988.
Firstly, they captured the power of local governments through 2013 Local Government Act, and took major development schemes. In a way, the PPP is following the PML-N formula of visible development to attract middle class voters including the Urdu-speaking.
Secondly, they encouraged rangers and police operation against the MQM and Lyari gang war, as PPP knows both can create hurdles to its game plan. The PPP was facing problems with Uzair Baloch and his gang and finding it difficult to retain its position in the next polls.
The operation plus MQM split gave them ample opportunity to plan for the next elections. They are taking advantage of the situation particularly when the PTI and the JI have not been able to muster much support.
However, the PPP is yet to perform well in strong constituencies of the MQM, and its only chance to make inroads would depend on the split and how much Urdu-speaking vote would split.
For the first time, elections in Karachi will be open for all, but it is very unlikely that Panama factor would also change the mindset of Karachi voters. All parties will have to work hard to win over Karachi.
This writer is the senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang.
Twitter: @MazharAbbasGEO
