Analysis: Parties contesting PS-114 by-poll eye 2018 elections

As electioneering gains momentum for the by-poll scheduled to be held in provincial assembly constituency PS-114 on July 9, political analysts believe that the result of this election will not only help the contending parties assess their strength but also set a voting trend for the next general elections due in 2018.

PS-114 is considered one of the toughest and the most sensitive constituencies of the metropolis, where politician Irfanullah Marwat and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) have fought election battles neck and neck.

Marwat won the constituency in the 2013 general elections on a Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) ticket, but his victory was declared void by an election tribunal in July 2014. On May 11 this year the Supreme Court ordered re-polling in PS-114, dismissing Marwat’s appeal challenging the tribunal’s decision. The seat fell vacant after the top court’s verdict unseated Marwat.

Although there are a number of contestants, the main fight is between the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), the MQM-Pakistan and the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI).

PTI Chairman Imran Khan, PPP Chairperson Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, MQM-P chief Dr Farooq Sattar and Jamaat-e-Islami chief Sirja-ul-Haq have either led rallies or are expected to do so on Friday (today).

The News has found, in its background interviews and research, some factors that could shape the result of the July 9 by-election.

PPP a strong stakeholder

Although the PPP could not become a significant stakeholder in the constituency in the past elections, this time round the party has fielded its secretary general for Karachi, Senator Saeed Ghani, in an effort to branch out of its traditional strongholds in Lyari and Malir.

Also, the party wishes to present Ghani as Karachi’s urban face in the Sindh cabinet, where almost all the ministers hail from the province’s rural areas.

PPP's leader and candidate for by-election addressing to press conference at Mehmoodabad during election campaign.

However, the PPP’s performance in the constituency in the past elections has been poor. In the 2013 polls, Marwat won the seat with 37,130 votes, defeating the MQM’s Rauf Siddiqui, who secured 30,305 votes, the PTI’s Israr Abbasi, who bagged 13,807 votes, and the PPP’s Sajjad Ahmed Pappi, who got only 3,827 votes.

But the PPP is confident that it would win the by-poll because Ghani is a local of the constituency and has a good reputation. He was elected the nazim of the Chanesar Goth union council in 2001 and his brother, Farhan Ghani, was elected chairman for the neighbourhood in the December 2015 local government polls.

Marwat backing PTI

In the past three general elections, Marwat won PS-114 twice, and, according to analysts, it is mainly because of his personal clout and not because of the political parties he has been associated with.

Late this February, Marwat had met PPP supremo Asif Ali Zardari at the Bilawal House and announced joining the party, triggering criticism of the PPP leadership for welcoming a man who was not only involved in “forcibly changing loyalties of the party’s lawmakers” in the 1990s but was also implicated in the infamous Veena Hayat gang rape case.

Shah Mehmood Qureshi addressing to public along with PTI candidate Najeeb Haroon.

Censure on the social media prompted Zardari’s daughters Bakhtawar and Aseefa to express their displeasure over Marwat coming aboard the PPP. According to their tweets, Marwat was a “sick man” who should be “rotting in a jail cell” and should not be allowed anywhere near the party. Marwat’s close aides accuse Ghani of “misguiding” the two women.

However, Marwat has now announced he will not contest the PS-114 by-election and will instead back the PTI’s Najeeb Haroon to give Ghani a hard time. Local observers say Marwat has a strong support base in the constituency and has made the PTI a stronger contender for the by-poll.

Also, because of PTI Karachi General Secretary Sardar Abdul Aziz, the party has managed to muster the support of his brother, Sardar Abdul Rahim, a former PS-114 MPA who is now a Pakistan Muslim Leauge-Functional leader and also enjoys support of the locals.

Test for MQM-P

The MQM has also won PS-114 several times. The party’s Mirza Shahid Baig and Rana Safdar Ali won the constituency in the 1990 and the 1993 general elections respectively.

MQM-Pak candidate Kamran Tessori, addressing a press conference

In the 2008 polls, the MQM’s Rauf Siddiqui won the constituency. This time round the party has fielded Kamran Tessori, who recently joined the MQM-Pakistan. But the July 9 by-poll would be a test for the party after it distanced itself from MQM founder Altaf Hussain, whose faction has appealed to the Mohajir community to boycott the poll.

Although the PPP and the PTI are prepared to exploit the internal crisis of the MQM-P, local analysts believe that the split of non-Mohajir votes in the constituency between two parties could help the MQM-P win.

PML-N and JI

The PML-N and the Jamaat-e-Islami have also fielded their candidates – Ali Akbar Gujjar and Zahood Jadoon – in the by-poll. However, analysts believe that they are not considered strong contesters and the two parties want to show their strength by fielding their candidates.

JI Karachi chief Hafiz Naeem ur Rehman addressing to press conference at central election office of PS114.

Christian votes

Keep in mind that the Christian vote in PS-114 can decisively sway the direction of the by-election, and the contesting political parties have therefore been making efforts to muster the support of the community.

Community leaders and analysts believe that the Christian voters are divided and not leaning towards one particular political party. Akhter Colony, Azam Basti, Kashmir Colony, Junejo Town and some parts of Mehmoodabad falling in the constituency are Christian-dominated neighbourhoods, where the community’s votes are crucial to win any ballot – the general elections or the local government polls.

Wooing other parties

The main contestants – the PPP, the MQM-P and the PTI – have been busy wooing other political parties and influential individuals to support their candidates

The PPP has succeed in mustering the support of most politlcal parties, including the Awami National Party, the Pakistan Sunni Tehreek, the Jamiat-e-Ulema Islam-Fazl, the Allama Owais Noorani-led Jamiat-Ulema Pakistan and the Punjabi Pakhtun Ittehad.

The PTI has garnered the support of the Marwat, the PML-F, the JUI-S and other smaller religious groups, including the Pakistan Ulema Mashaikh.

The MQM-P has withdrawn a candidate of the Christian Peoples Alliance (CPA), a Christian political party, in favour of its candidate.

Security arrangements

Sindh Home Minister Sohail Anwar Khan Siyal presided over a meeting to review security arrangements for the by-election.

The meeting was attended by Karachi Additional IG Mushtaq Maher, CTD Additional IG Dr Sana Ullah Abbasi, Special Branch Additional IG Dr Waliullah Dal, East Zone DIG Arif Hanif and SSP Faiz ullah Korejo.

The home minister directed the police officers to ensure a peaceful atmosphere and keep an eye on mischievous elements during the bye-election. He also ordered beefing up security by deploying more police personnel as well as sweeping of the polling stations by the bomb disposal squad.

SSP Korejo said that 92 polling stations had been established in 57 buildings, 1,501 police personnel, including three companies of the Rapid Response Force, would be deployed on the day, and 41 moblies, five armoured personnel carriers and 60 motorcycles are being detailed for duties.

Karachi police chief Mushtaq Maher directed the East Zone DIG to arrange an urgent meeting with the candidates and take them into confidence for body searches of voters to ensure extraordinary security at the polling stations.

The home minister directed SSP Korejo to ensure that a dedicated police party escorted the polling staff and material from the election commission’s offices to the polling stations and back after the poll. He directed the zonal and district police of District East to remain in coordination with the Special Branch and the Pakistan Rangers.

Sindh Inspector General of Police AD Khowaja also ordered fool-proof security arrangements for the people in general, and voters, electoral staff and candidates in particular during the by-polls scheduled for Karachi and Kot Diji (Khairpur) on July 9.

Directing the deputy inspectors general to take extraordinary measures for the security of the stakeholders, he said the code of conduct issued by the election commission must be strictly implemented. “It is our collective responsibility to ensure that polls are conducted with absolute transparency and impartiality,” he said.