Normal rainfall in first half of monsoon

Islamabad: Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) Thursday said monsoon rainfall is expected to be normal in the first half while below normal in the second half of the season in the country.

Large uncertainties prevail in the evolution of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), however, most of the models are in consensus of neutral phase of phenomena during the season, an official of Met office told APP.

Based on statistical and dynamical downscaling of global circulation models, salient features of outlook for the season (July to September) will be expected as during July, monsoon rainfall may range in normal limits but less than normal rainfall is likely in August and September.

Less frequent rains in southern half of the country may trigger drought like conditions.

There is a high probability of localised rain spells which may generate flash flooding in mountainous and sub-mountainous regions, he informed.

Due to erratic behaviour of summer monsoon, extreme precipitation events may occur at isolated places in the country, which can result into floods.

However, localized events of rainfall coupled with rapid melting in the glaciated regions of Gilgit-Baltistan and Chitral may trigger Glacier Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) events.