Summer monsoon rainfall in first half expected to be normal

LAHORE: City witnessed a cloudy but hot day here Wednesday while Met office predicted scattered rain with thunderstorm in various cities during the next 24 hours.

Met officials while giving regional outlook said large uncertainties prevail in the evolution of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD); however, most of the models are in consensus of neutral phase of phenomena during the season. Consequent upon prevailing ocean and atmospheric conditions, summer monsoon rainfall is expected to be normal in the first half and below normal in the second half of the season, in Pakistan.

They said based on statistical and dynamical downscaling of global circulation models, area weighted rainfall during monsoon season over Pakistan is expected to fall short of long-term average. However, rainfall will be highly variable over temporal and spatial scale.

They added that during July, monsoon rainfall may range in normal limits but less than normal rainfall is likely in August and September. Met officials added that less frequent rains in southern half of the country may trigger drought like conditions while there is a high probability of localised rain spell which may generate flash flooding in mountainous and sub-mountainous regions.

Met officials maintained that due to erratic behaviour of monsoon, extreme precipitation events may occur at isolated places in the country, which can result into floods while localised events of rainfall coupled with rapid melting in the glaciated regions of Gilgit-Baltistan and Chitral may trigger glacial lake outburst flood.

Meanwhile, Met officials said continental air is prevailing over most parts of the country. However, a shallow westerly wave is still affecting Kashmir and its adjoining areas. They predicted that mainly hot and dry weather is expected in most parts of the country, while very hot weather is expected in plain areas of KP, Upper Sindh and Punjab. They added that however, dust-thunderstorm/rain is expected at few places in Rawalpindi, Gujranwala, Lahore, Faisalabad, DG Khan, Multan, DI Khan, Hazara divisions, Islamabad, Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan.

Rainfall was recorded at Garhi Dupatta, Rawalakot and DG Khan. Wednesday’s maximum temperature was recorded at Sibbi where mercury reached 48°C while in Lahore, it was 42°C, minimum was 26.8°C and humidity was 19 percent.