In search of alternative leadership in Karachi

For the first time in almost 30 years the elections in urban Sindh, especially Karachi, will be most unpredictable in the absence of Altaf Hussain and his MQM faction even with or without official ban. The search for an alternative is under way as political uncertainty prevails. 

An undivided MQM had won all elections since 1988 despite the first split in 1991 except one in 2002 when the it lost six seats to religious parties’ alliance, MMA, but staged a strong comeback in 2008 polls.

Failure to find an “out of the box” solution is one of the reasons why the authorities had failed in finding an alternative to MQM. However, the present division within MQM after the launch of Pak Sarzameen Party (PSP) in April last year followed by August 22nd development had raised their hope for a finding out a possible alternative. 

There is still no decision at the highest level to file a reference against MQM in the Supreme Court but both civil and military establishments have decided to close political space for Altaf Hussain and his faction. 

Sources said some of these quarters were disappointed when Dr Farooq Sattar and his team, instead of leaving MQM or quitting the Assemblies, brought about an internal coup on two major points: (1) denouncing t Altaf Hussain's anti-Pakistan stance and (2) claiming MQM-Pakistan as genuine MQM and what they did was in accordance to the MQM constitution. 

MQM-Pakistan came under pressure from the quarters concerned, and they are still facing pressure and are accused of playing like a B-team of MQM London. The move certainly was a setback to those who were expecting majority of MQM leaders to join PSP. 

Former mayor Mustafa Kamal and Anis Qaimkhani who launched PSP last year are also facing problems and though they are confident about providing an 'alternative leadership ' to Karachi, the recent action against them from the Sindh government followed by former president Asif Ali Zardari's firm statement that he did not even consider PSP as a political party indicate that PPP leadership's problems with the establishment still persist. 

Each of the PSP and MQM-Pakistan is active in its efforts to prove itself as the possible alternative to London, while the authorities appear disappointed with the PTI as the possible third alternate. 

Both have demonstrated their strength. While the PSP is preparing for the second round and Mustafa Kamal intends to close down Karachi, the first since the combined MQM strike some two years back for Karachi's rights, the MQM-Pakistan would also be giving calling for a 'Million march.' But all this will be after Ramazan.  

No one knows how the Muhajir voters would react at the time of the elections. Will they react the way they reacted in NA-246 or would they react at the time of some by-elections in post August 22nd situation. 

The recent developments in the wake of operation in Top City, project, Islamabad, allegedly the hideout of MQM London operatives because one of the owners of the project Zahid had been associated with MQM, and recovery of huge cache of arms and ammunition once again raised question about the move. 

Official sources in Islamabad revealed that Interior Minister Ch. Nisar Ali Khan himself was not happy over the manner in which this operation was conducted without following the SOPs for the rangers.

Sources said difference persist whether MQM should officially be banned through a reference in the SC on charges of its alleged link with RAW, involvement in anti-State activities, terror financing and act of terrorism, or maintaining the present status quo. 

Sources said Ch. Nisar is against the official ban as he believes it could be counterproductive. Instead, he is in favour of legal discourse against the MQM founder and others in exile involved in terrorism to get them convicted. 

He has already given instructions to FIA to get the exiled leader through Interpol and to get red warrant of arrest but at the same time he has sharply reacted to the recent operation in Top City project allegedly link to MQM London.

Despite Ch Nisar’s reaction, the operation continued and more details were revealed about the recovery of arms and ammunition as well as video leak of some MQM leaders 'shooting' at the Top City site. 

These developments raised further question whether certain agencies are taking actions without the prior knowledge of Interior Ministry or had ignored the established SOPs for such operation.

It is interesting to note that Ch Nisar was also not happy the manner in which three close aides of former President Asif Ali Zardari were disappeared and after a few weeks two of them returned without further query.

It appears that, on the one hand, MQM London's future looks bleak and it is almost certain that they may be out of the mainstream politics, even if not banned, no mainstream party has been able to cover the ground left by Altaf Hussain and his London team. 

MQM-Pakistan decision not to publicly humiliate or insult Altaf and MQM London was more to fill the space rather than performing as London's B team. The PSP on the other hand is trying to attract voters other than the Urdu-speaking, particularly PTI, which got eight lakh votes in 2013.

Any official ban on MQM would further create political uncertainty but one thing is certain — no political pundit could predict the outcome of the next general elections in Karachi unlike the past. It will be an unpredictable elections in urban Sindh, that is for sure.

(The writer is the senior columnist and analyst of GEO The News and Jang.

Twitter:@MazharAbbasGEO)