Real facts about the latest survey

ISLAMABAD: A recent survey on political attitudes conducted in a few streets and roads of a city, reported on the national level and portrayed as “Harvard and LUMS survey” by the national media had nothing to do with the prestigious institutions — Harvard University, USA, or the LUMS University, Lahore.

This has been confirmed and crosschecked by The News. The latest survey has found the PML-N narrative of development generating more resonance with people than the PTI’s policy of building public support against corruption. That people are more supportive of economic prosperity than the provision of education, health, electricity, water and sewerage is yet another revealing finding.

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is more honest than Imran Khan has also been discovered. The survey has received attention far and wide. Little or no questions have been raised about its methodology and selection bias. Its appearance before some importantimportant events must be a happy news for the ruling party. 

One wonders why the firm published its findings of only three National Assembly constituencies while it had plans to conduct similar survey in other parts of the country. Had these results merged with response of the people on similar questions from areas like KPK, interior Sindh, Balochistan, Karachi and South Punjab it would have made sense. Now it seems that everything was done in indecent haste apparently to counter or to pre-empt something very important or big about to happen.  

How far it reflects on public sentiments remains a question. Although the author of the survey report, Dr Ali Cheema, who has been appointed as Punjab government’s non statutory member of National Finance Commission, has explained at the outset that survey caters to only three constituencies and all of them are considered stronghold of PML-N: NA 121, NA 122 and NA 124. Meher Ishtiaq Ahmed of the ruling party won from NA 121, National Assembly Speaker Sardar Ayaz Sadiq from NA 122 and Sheikh Rohail Asghar of PML-N from NA 124. Even in one of these three National Assembly constituencies, there were two provincial constituencies; one won by PML-N and the other by PTI. The survey team decided to go for the one won by PML-N. 

Why these three constituencies? Elections in NA 122 was tightly contested between PML-N and PTI, authors explain, whereas the ruling party won by substantial margin in the remaining two constituencies. One fails to understand the logic how the target areas became a plausible choice for a survey being portrayed in a misleading manner by media. 

There is one national assembly and four provincial assembly seats won by PTI in Lahore. None of them has been considered to determine the ‘political attitude’ of the constituents. The survey notes that of NA 121 and NA 125, two provincial assembly constituencies PP 146 and PP 149 (both have PML-N MPAs) were taken as sample. “This mix of constituencies is interesting because they lie in the heart of the city, are contiguous, vary in the intensity of electoral competition and comprise mixed settlements of people belonging to different socio-economic and income classes,” the survey report explains. 

Dr Ali Cheema, who is recently appointed as non-official member of the NFC by the Punjab government and is also the author of this report released in the name of a research institute IDEAS, while talking to The News admitted that the prestigious educational institutions of Harvard University, USA, and LUMS, Lahore, have nothing to do with this survey. 

Dr Ali Cheema also told The News that though he served in LUMS Lahore in past, at present he was not even affiliated with LUMS in any way.  Cheema said that he will not comment on the question of conflict of interest because of his assignment in NFC where he is representing the Punjab government without getting any monitory benefits and release of this pro-government survey. 

Cheema said that there were differences on issuing the survey report after completing work in three constituencies only but majority of the people in his organization decided to release the survey. He said more details of the survey will be released after two or three weeks.  Dr Ali Cheema repeatedly insisted that release of this survey at this time has nothing to do with the much awaited Panama case verdict.