Banking deposits grow 20pc to Rs11.2trln in 2016

KARACHI: Deposits at banks rose to Rs11.2 trillion in December 2016, the highest level in three years, which augured well for the financial sector, a brokerage reported on Friday.

Bank deposits came in at Rs9.3 trillion in December 2015. Deposits are increasing gradually after experiencing withdrawal following the increase in withholding tax on cash transactions last year. Moreover, a slowdown in real estate activity is also resisting deposits outflows. 

Deposits climbed to Rs11 trillion during the third quarter (July-September) of 2016. Deposits fell in the last couple of years due to monetary easing and consequent fall in minimum savings rate and imposition of withholding tax on banking transactions.

“A 20 percent year-on-year growth in deposits is significantly higher than historical average growth of 12 percent during the last three years,” Umair Naseer, an analyst at Topline Securities Limited, said. “Strong deposit growth bodes well for the banks as volumetric deposits growth remain the key earning driver in low interest rate environment.”

Analysts are unanimous that banks must increase their efforts for deposit mobilisation, which are the major source of their funding.

Deposits also increased seven percent on month-on-month basis in the same month of the last calendar year. “The abnormal month-on-month jump in deposits can be due to the yearend phenomenon and this will adjust in the upcoming weeks,” Naseer said.

Some analysts see bank deposits to grow at 13-15 percent this year.  A higher inflow of deposits was also attributed to private sector and public sector deposits at banks.

The government placed more money—as a part of their increased borrowing from the State Bank—with domestic banks.    

The advances to the private sector rose 17 percent to Rs5.6 trillion in December last year from Rs4.8 trillion in the corresponding month of the previous year.

Investments were up eight percent to Rs7.2 trillion.

Improvement in bank loans showed pick up in credit demand from businesses amid broad consensus about the country’s cheery economic prospects.

The increased pace of work on infrastructure and CPEC-related projects would boost the appetite for bank lending in 2017.

The SBP key policy rate stands at 5.75 percent, which is at a 42-year low. Soft interest rate fuelled surge in advances from banks during the last year.

Banking deposits stood at Rs10.6 trillion and advances amounted to Rs5.3 trillion as of December 23, 2016.

Improvement in advance also indicated increased credit demand, initiation of CPEC (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor) projects and improved macroeconomic indicators.

Banks are also focusing on high-yielding consumer (product) growth to support their margins and profitability.

The SBP, in its report, said the private sector credit is expected to take a boost from improving demand conditions as implied by growth in manufacturing sector, better energy supplies, especially to the manufacturing sector, growing momentum of CPEC-related activities, and, the lagged impact of easy monetary policy.

“Moreover, the government reliance for budgetary borrowing away from the banking sector (to the central bank) may also induce banks to go for alternative investment avenues of private sector lending,” it said.

The report said the spread between lending and deposit rate is shrinking in the wake of easy monetary conditions. “This coupled with falling yield on treasury investments were already taking a toll on the sector’s profitability,” it added.

“However, it is expected that the decelerating profitability may further push banks towards their core - and higher yielding - business of lending.”

It said the banking sector remains sound and resilient on an overall basis. “However, the expected growth in the private sector credit will increase the quantum of risk weighted assets,” it added.

“At the same time, the slowdown in profitability may hamper the banks’ ability to plough back profits and support capital base. This might put downward pressure on the capital adequacy ratio.”