PTI march and polity

Whether it is an agitation or march to be converted into a planned sit-in at Raiwind, Lahore on September 30, ambiguity and element of surprise surrounding the whole effort is less likely to work for the PTI.

For it is the spirit and clear-headedness of the workers and supporters of the party or the movement that makes it successful. Hidden strategies and palace intrigues carry no mass appeal. That tens of thousands would turn up at Raiwind to bend the PML-N to its knees, is a rosy picture and farfetched conclusion no one is ready to buy, even in the PTI’s ranks.

The party’s saner but silent elements are even questioning the logic behind such a political campaign in the days of India-Pakistan tensions. Others feel Imran Khan (IK) should have risen from a party to a national leader postponing the event in the wake of current crisis situation on country’s eastern borders giving yet another month long date to the rulers to come to terms for Panama Papers investigations mechanism. That was not to be. IK and aides think a delay and more time for ruling PML-N will not work for them.

And damage the momentum of their campaign. Hence, the situation at hand. Claims and counters apart, a satisfactory gathering of workers, voters and supporters might lure PTI top leaders to extend the march into a sit-in, may be for a few hours that day. Nothing more.  

Many of them would, in such a scenario, will naively be looking towards the garrison for any intervention if possible – an action replay of Nawaz Sharif led march for restoration of superior judiciary. A loud thinking indeed, having little or no resemblance with the issue at hand. PTI brains think the show must go on, unabated. They are undeterred, less concerned about the end result. Yet some argue a clear cut plan of action for the agitation day, and follow up for the next weeks and months is the only viable political option for the party whose rank and file, voters and supporters are already becoming tired and warry of continuous agitation on the streets. Not that Imran Khan’s support is dwindling. His supporters still plan to vote for his party and candidates in the event of next elections, but many of them prefer to glue to television screens rather than becoming active participants on streets and in public meetings, these days.   Perhaps this is the reason why PTI is relying more on manpower from other cities and provinces, especially KP, at a time when Lahorites are showing signs of fatigue and exhaustion. The over stretch of IK’s political campaign is his quest to prepare for the next general elections well in advance, is bringing a mix bags of positives and negatives for his party, voters and supports. But all agree that Imran Khan’s PTI has finally made a big gamble by committing itself almost single-handedly to the September 30 Lahore march. 

This strategy of the PTI has its own benefits and pitfalls. So they will reap the windfall of a successful political show, and take full blame of any failure.  Till date, no other significant political party of the country is ready to partner PTI in the political adventure for understandable reasons of their own.

So why are major political entities shying away to support or collaborate with PTI in their show of strength at the moment, even when all of them blame ruling PML-N for employing delaying tactics in investigation of the Panama Papers related mega corruption scandal? 

Every party, at this moment, has its own axe to grind. So an apparently united opposition in theory, tend to disagree sharply when it comes to action on the street.  For now, Awami Muslim League of Sheikh Rashid Ahmed seems the best bet and sure shot support for PTI. But despite being the most sought after politician in rating hungry television talk shows, Rashid is confined to Rawalpindi and that too in one constituency. 

ANP, a bitter PTI rival in KP, has already distanced itself from the Panama Papers related wrangling. MQM, Pakistan or London, are too busy in infighting. The PPP is in no mood to join stage with PTI at the moment in practical terms. From a new born defiant leader, Bilawal Bhutto has quickly turned into a more pragmatic stuff perhaps after his recent interactions with elder Zardari abroad.

The PPP is suddenly looking very reluctant to partner with PTI in its street agitation against the PML-N. Despite signals from its Punjab leaders, the Sindh chapter of the party as well as its government in that province, doesn’t favour an all out campaign against the PML-N in the center and the Punjab province.  

No one wants to rock the boat at a time when elder Zardari plans to stage a likely safe return to the homeland in December this year. The PPP at the moment is more interested confining the Panama Papers related issue to the Parliament and putting maximum pressure of the ruling party in both the Houses of parliament.  

The dismal performance of its provincial government (eight years under former CM Qaim Ali Shah) seems to have compelled Bilawal and elder Zardari to tone down and apply a reality check for now.

The most lethal political partner of PTI in agitation, the PAT led by Dr Tahirul Qadri (TuQ) is already nowhere to be seen. That TuQ left after disagreement on future seat adjustment with PTI, as being claimed by some second tier PAT leaders, seems too good to be true.

Some say TuQ, as always, came on a short term campaign and wants to choose his own timing and plan of action against the Sharif in future too. Others feel, as always, TuQ carried out his assigned task and was asked to leave as forces that wanted to clip wings of the ruling Sharifs, didn’t want to take the confrontation to its logical conclusion.

Jamaat-e-Islami is also all set to stay away from PTI’s power show, even if it decides to register its token presence that day.   Despite being a coalition partner in KP government and expressing the same sentiments against the ruling Sharifs on panama Papers, Sirajul Haq doesn’t seem in conformity with IK’s style of politicking. 

The JI didn’t join the 2014 Islamabad sit-in with PTI and PAT. And ever since, it is keeping its political presence distinct. Interestingly, Siraj-ul-Haq has recently vowed to unite the opposition ranks within October, many days and weeks after PTI’s make or break Raiwind march.

The PML-Q is yet another political entity willing to collaborate with any entity to bring down the PML-N and Sharifs. This was perhaps the reason that landed IK to meet PML-Q President Ch Shujaat Hussain and his all time deputy, Ch Pervaiz Elahi.

Strange enough, Ch Shujaat sought time to consult with party cadres on joining the Raiwind march despite PTI Secretary General Jahangir Tareen’s claims of securing the PML-Q’s support.  

The PML-Q is going through a very difficult phase these days. From an artificial political giant propped up by former military dictator, the party has been reduced to a political non entity after Sharifs’ home coming in year 2008.

The Qaumi Watan Party led by Aftab Ahmed Khan Sherpao has a unique love-hate relationship with the PTI despite being coalition partners in the KP government.  Sherpao is part and parcel of the opposition in Parliament, but not willing to go extra mile against the PML-N. 

He has never been seen in a cordial and friendly mood with or seen near IK throughout the last three years, even after rejoining KP government after severe disagreements with PTI and trading of corruption allegations.