Significance of AJK polls

What one can give a better tribute to veteran politicians like Meraj Mohammad Khan, than democratic change through elections? He saw the only transfer of power from one civilian government to another in 2013, and when the news came last night about his death, his former party, PTI, set a good democratic tradition by accepting the results and congratulated the PML-N, for clean sweep, though his original party, PPP accused it of rigging.

Change has come in AJK through a democratic process, whether some call it a sham democracy, or someone like Meraj sahab, who considered it better than shame dictatorship. He was among the most clean politicians who struggled for democracy throughout his life, though he himself also suffered during Zulfikar Ali Bhutto's government.

AJK's elections saw that a party, which did not deliver, was replaced by another which has promised to do better. If failed, it could be replaced. Apparently, the election process, from polling to counting, looked free and fair, but there is always a possibility for more improvement through electoral reforms.

The AJK elections results is significant for all Pakistan-based political parties but the clean sweep by PML-N has eased some pressure on Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif regarding Panama Papers and the challenge to cope with Imran Khan's second phase of agitation from August 7.

Though the political dynamics of AJK are quite different from Pakistan, since all mainstream parties and leaders remain active in Azad Kashmir, it has an impact on domestic politics of Pakistan. Sharif may feel more comfortable now to deal with the opposition.

It was the best possible result for Sharif who arrived in the federal capital after almost two months, which also brought an end to long political drought and rumours like "something is going to happen”. It can be a new beginning for the premier as he is looking for a way out from the political crisis over Panama Papers.

Sharif has already given some fresh instructions to his chief negotiator Ishaq Dar to contact opposition parties for a possible compromise on ToRs.

In this regard, some directives have also been given to Federal Minister for Port and Shipping Mir Hasil Bizenjo, a senior leader of National Party.

Though in normal circumstances, this victory would not have any major political significance as opposition parties built up pressure and launched a very aggressive campaign against Sharif in AJK during the last few weeks, but a clean sweep was something even PML-N was not expecting. PML also won nine out of the 12 seats reserved for the refugees (mohajireen) in Pakistan, which gave an addition upper hand to him over opposition.

There are three possible reasons why PML-N) won by a big margin: PML-N in power in Islamabad, PPP government’s poor performance in AJK and the PML-N’s selection of candidates being better than that of opposition whose negative campaign also favoured the PML-N.

There are also reasons why opposition performed so badly in AJK, and could not unite as joint opposition. It is yet another wake up call for PPP – which has a record of ruling AJK along with Muslim Conference – to review its politics.

It was a first major test for young Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, but his political advisers, poor performance of the PPP-led AJK government, poorly-drafted speech and campaign let him down. Even if PPP could not perform well, it could have achieved much better results in case the party leadership had monitored its government.

It is third major defeat for PPP after the 2013 elections and Gilgit-Baltistan polls. The PPP’s dilemma that it has not learnt any lesson and people are just awaiting a better option given the way its government is performing in Sindh.

Confusion still prevails within the PPP over its political strategy, organisation and future programme. Without sorting out all this, the PPP's chances in next elections look very bleak. The PPP, which still has some mature political minds and dedicated workers, have to redefine its politics, if it really wants to remain in the electoral race outside Sindh.

And there is also lot to think about for PTI and its chairman, Imran Khan. It was the first election for them but IK launched the party in AJK with a person who always has a controversial record and is known for changing loyalties. So, one of the reasons for PTI's poor performance was joining status quo and electable politics. IK should have gone with someone with a more clean record and non-controversial background.

Secondly, this result once again reminded of its poor performance since 2013 elections due to ineffective organisation, immature electoral strategy and rising differences within the party, which were clearly reflected in PTI's National Convention held this week in Islamabad.

Thus, IK must review his plan for another solo flight and that too with a disorganised party. While he should continue building pressure on PML-N within the Parliament, he must ensure order within his party's ranks before the 2018 elections.

Although his party opted to seats adjustment with Muslim Conference (MC), but MC's strength in the past has been the PML, with its vote bank by and large comprising ‘Muslim Leaguers’.

In the end, Kaptaan's Kaptaan in AJK, Sultan Mehmood Chaudhry, lost but the Muslim Conference chief, Sardar Attique, retained his seat.

This election once again exposed the capacity of religious parties to win elections, as they were practically routed. The performance of Jamaat-e-Islami since 2013 elections is constantly on decline except in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In Punjab and Sindh, Jamaat lost elections despite an alliance with the PTI.

Since there is a concept in Jamaat of seeking the resignation of its chief in case the party is defeated in the elections, Siraj-ul-Haq and the JI Central Shura still have time to review the party politics.

For MQM, which in the last elections won the two seats of mohajireen from Karachi, the defeat has further reduced party's strength to urban Sindh. It was certainly a difficult election for MQM amid the prevailing situation in Karachi where the operation has badly affected MQM's work force.

Secondly, it has never been an easy election for MQM, but had they even won one out of two seats, it could have raised the moral of its workers. The two seats are now divided between PPP and PML-N.

Thus, the MQM too needs soul searching to cope with the situation which has worsened with the arrest of its nominated mayor's candidate Waseem Akhtar.

The PML-N now has two-thirds majority to form the government without any support from other parties. However, Sharif can give a good message to the opposition it if invite other parties like PPP and PTI to form coalition and thus further ease political tension. It is important in the context of the political uprising in the Indian-held Kashmir.

But who knows better than Sharif that merely getting two-thirds majority does not mean you got a clean chit to complete your term. In the 1997 elections, his party bagged two-thirds majority but was overthrown on October 12, 1999.

It is the time for the PML-N in AJK, as well as in Pakistan to perform and resolve political issues politically. In this way, one can pay tribute to someone like Meraj Mohammad Khan.

The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of GEO, The News and Jang.