Water politics a recipe for disaster

Pakistan entered the 21st Century amid a persistent drought. Balochistan, Sindh and Southern Punjab experienced worst effects of drought. It was estimated some 3.3 million people were affected, with many having to relocate. The livestock sector suffered severe losses, affecting nearly 30 million animals, with around 2 million dying. The most severe consequence of drought was displacement, migration and creation of climate refugees. It posed complex challenges for the community, including conflicts and threats to national security.

Pakistan had barely recovered from the full impact of droughts when floods began affecting the country. Since 2010, Pakistan has consistently faced flooding, with the most severe incidents occurring in 2022.

Water scarcity is another major issue that is worsening over time. Per capita water availability is steadily decreasing, and this trend is expected to accelerate. A study by UNDP projected a 14pc rise in water demand by 2025, which will impact per capita availability. It is widely acknowledged climate change will exacerbate water scarcity and degradation of water quality. Pakistan will need to confront challenges related to floods, droughts and water scarcity. The situation demands serious attention, prudent policies and practical plans to address these issues.

Unfortunately, the ruling elite and political parties have politicised water governance and management. Instead of seeking solutions, petty politics have taken over the decision-making process. Political parties have turned it into a matter of provincial pride at the expense of national interests. The KPK parties oppose construction of Kalabagh Dam, fearing it will submerge Nowshera, but Nowshera is 60 feet higher than Kalabagh. Sindh also opposes construction of Kalabagh Dam. They oppose it without any scientific rationale to gain political mileage. This is happening despite the World Bank report advising Pakistan to build the dam before the end of 1980s. It is unfortunate that while Pakistani political parties are fighting over building dams, India is constructing dams on the Indus, citing Pakistan’s inability to develop a storage facility.

However, Balochistan is the most intriguing case in this political discussion, as its voice is mostly absent from the water allocation debate. Balochistan is a low-riparian province to Sindh and faces challenges due to reduced water availability. Balochistan accuses Sindh of depriving it of its fair share of water. It is interesting to note Sindh accuses Punjab of withholding its water but pays no attention to Balochistan’s water needs.

Recently, Sindh has started opposing construction of new canals under Green Pakistan Initiative. Sindh’s political parties again started blaming Punjab for depriving the province of water. However, a question arises: before the Indus Water Treaty, Punjab had its own rivers, which were allocated to India in the treaty. It was also promised to Nawab of Bahawalpur the state would take care of Punjab’s water needs, especially those of Southern Punjab. Additionally, building canals in Balochistan could transform the province’s future, which has 4.26 million acres of arable land and significant potential in livestock. It could also help address Balochistan’s concerns about water theft by Sindh government. In this context, why are Sindhi political parties protesting now?

Political parties in Sindh and KPK have made it a non-negotiable issue. They do not appear willing to address the problems based on scientific reasoning. Instead, they stick to their own viewpoints and blame Punjab without considering other factors. It is worth noting the political parties in Punjab and Balochistan are exercising restraint and are not engaging in water politics.

However, there is concern if the blame game continues without any scientific basis, Punjab might choose to redefine its restraint policy. In this case, situation would become more complex. For example, in response to Sindh and KPK’s blame, Punjab might question the water distribution under the Indus Water Treaty. Punjab could blame the Pashtun President of KPK and newly-settled bureaucracy of Sindh for handing over Punjab’s water share to India. They protected the water of Sindh and KPK at Punjab’s expense. This could spark a new debate, which would be detrimental to the country. The differences among the provinces would become more pronounced.

In this context, Pakistan needs to reform its practices and adopt a wise policy. When distributing water among provinces, it is also necessary to give due importance to water availability in the pre-Indus Water Treaty era. It is important because, prior to the Indus Water Treaty, Punjab had access to Ravi, Beas and Sutlej rivers, which have been allocated to India. To compensate for the deficiency, Punjab has to rely on the Indus Waters.

There is a need to build dams. It is no longer optional; it has become a necessity. Besides other benefits, it will improve water availability and help maintain a steady flow down the Korti barrage, which is crucial for preserving the delta level and preventing sea intrusion over time. It has been estimated an annual flow of 8.6MAF is necessary to sustain a balanced environment. However, Pakistan releases almost 31MAF but still faces challenges.

Why is that? Pakistan lacks the necessary water storage facilities. Therefore, during peak water availability, it cannot store the water and has no choice but to let it flow into the sea, creating its own problems. To reverse this trend, building dams is urgently needed. Finally, stored water can be used to convert large areas of cultivable waste into arable land. It is estimated Pakistan has approximately 8.89 million acres of cultivable land, with Balochistan accounting for a major portion of 4.26 million acres. This will help Pakistan ensure food security, provide employment for unskilled labor, and ensure availability of affordable, high-quality and timely raw materials for industry.

It is important to note dam building is a common activity. It is regarded as a solution, and all countries are investing in it, especially developed and upper-middle-income nations. China has 24,202 dams, US 10,126, India 4,488, Japan 3,178, Turkiye 1,903, South Korea 1,502, Canada 1,428 and South Africa has 1,409. Unfortunately, despite being a large and water-stressed country, Pakistan has only 183 dams.

Decision-making must be guided and supported by high-quality, unbiased and independent scientific data and research. There should be no influence from politics or political statements. For example, when building dams, we must recognise no development activity is without side effects, and our goal should be to minimise them since they cannot be completely eliminated. The best approach is to conduct a benefit-cost analysis and base the decision on its findings, rather than on political statements.

Climate change must be a key factor, rather than a leading one, when devising water-related policies or action plans.

Pakistan must keep politics out of the water sector. Unfortunately, this is not happening, as Pakistani ruling elite is exceptionally good at making any issue political, but they lack political wisdom and the will to solve the problem. If we continue down this path, disaster is imminent, and it will create chaos beyond our capacity to manage.