Posters and promotions

Cruising along the famous avenues of Pakistan’s leading urban centres, you couldn’t miss those billboards with the picture of a smiling Raheel Sharif, accompanied by a short message in Urdu asking him to take over.

The civil authorities had the posters removed while the government contemplated ways to counter this open call to flout the country’s constitution.

Subsequent developments have the citizens wondering what was going on. The ISPR denied involvement. However, the puppet department owned up to the posters – asserting their infinite love for the army chief. The maulana for all seasons came forward, for once articulating commonly felt angst by calling the poster campaign as an act of treason. Then came the news of the arrests and likely prosecution of those blatantly calling for a military takeover.

Some speculate that the army chief’s impending retirement or his potential extension is behind the poster episode. In other words, abhi tau party shuru hui hai.

‘Move on Pakistan’ is the latest eruption in the multifaceted crisis the present government has faced starting with the Imran-Qadri show of strength in 2014, inviting the third umpire to intervene. Their hubris melted away once the umpire told them to calm down.

Pakistanis, having experienced so much turmoil in their country’s short history, cannot be too excited over ongoing manoeuvres by the container brigade, joined by the PPP, to destabilise the government in the aftermath of the Panama leaks. Uppermost in their minds is what role the umpire will play if the PML-N dispensation is pushed against the wall.

Propaganda stunts by some-well wishers of the army chief have further muddied the waters, leading to many tongues wagging about all kinds of dire consequences. Senior analysts and super anchors update us on a daily basis about all that is likely to happen in the coming weeks. They usually add the caveat that everything cannot be disclosed, thus taking a rain check for things moving differently. The overzealous among them try desperately to fast forward the brewing crisis.

So in the midst of the cacophony, I have undertaken an exercise to figure out some scenarios, based on common sense rather than occult science, about the prevailing situation.

In Scenario 1, which the markets are going to love, Nawaz Sharif weathers the latest tsunami unleashed by the master agitator and his co-travellers. The government completes its five years and announces the date of the next general election. There is some more foreign investment and a couple of billion dollars more in the foreign exchange reserves.

Overall, it is a continuation of low achievements with the exports remaining stagnant and social development indices going down for a growing population. The PML-N tries to prove its credentials beyond building roads and bridges, diverting more money to the social sector.

Scenario 2. This is a bad one for the markets. Nawaz Sharif comes under increasing pressure from the container lot, the umpire and catalytic agents like those putting up posters at night. Normal economic activity is disrupted, hurting productivity and provision of services.

The flight of capital accelerates and the rupee comes under growing pressure. A government notorious for its diffidence and inaction reaches a stage of semi-paralysis. The PML-N tries to cut a deal with the PPP to marginalise the PTI which, having failed to capitalise on Panama, becomes more desperate, violent and prone to inciting some extra-constitutional move to cut short the government’s term for an early general election.

Scenario 3. A win-win for all. Nawaz Sharif’s health condition does not allow him to exercise power effectively and he comes under increasing pressure from a virulent opposition on the issue of the Panama leaks. He agrees to step down and appoints someone else from the PML-N to take over as prime minister. The ‘Move on Pakistan’ types lose their steam and the umpire assumes a benevolent role in an extended tenure to be determined through mutual consultations. Or, he retires as promised.

But prudent forecasters will not exclude the unforeseen scenario which sadly is never far off. That is the one which tells the world loud and clear that Pakistan has taken, once more, a backward step. It happened in 1958, 1969, 1977 and 1999. This is the one which extends the army chief’s term indefinitely.

Looking back at the last 50 years, Zia stayed as COAS for nine years in excess of his three-year tenure and Musharraf for seven years beyond his term. Kayani was granted three years after completing his normal term. Between them, these three gobbled up nineteen extra years of the army chief’s tenure, denying six other generals the chance of leading one of the world’s largest armies. Keep your promise, mon general!

The world still remembers one general who stood above the rest. Charles De Gaulle pulled France out of the socio-politico-economic mess. He restored France’s place in the concert of nations and told his countrymen to let go off Algeria which many of them thought was part of France.

After becoming unpopular, De Gaulle called a referendum on his plans which were rebuffed by the electorate. De Gaulle calmly rode back to his village in Eastern France. Not to forget that he was not the army chief then but a popularly elected president. Surely, there is a way for generals to reach Islamabad by constitutional means.

Email: saeed.saeedk@gmail.com