Punjab’s stagnating output, Sindh’s shortfall drive cotton downturn

LAHORE: The low cotton influx at the ginning stage indicates a concerning 29.66 percent decline in national silver fiber production over previous year, according to latest industry data.

The season has been defined by a significant overall shortfall in cotton arrivals compared to the previous low-output year, primarily driven by a substantial decline in Sindh. On the other hand, Punjab has hardly kept production at last-year’s level, showing a miniscule increase in production.

According to the data issued on Sunday by the Pakistan Cotton Ginners’ Association (PCGA) for the period ending on July 31, 2025, the national cotton ginning sector continues to present a gloomy outlook. This analysis of the latest cotton arrivals portrays key findings regarding provincial performance disparities and market dynamics.

Total arrivals this season stand at 593,821 bales, which is a significant drop of 250,436 bales from the previous year’s total of 844,257 bales, showing the 29.66 percent reduction in overall cotton arrivals at national level. This overall deficit is a direct result of divergent provincial performances, with the shortfall in Sindh outweighing the marginal gains in Punjab.

As per arrival data, Punjab, a key contributor to the country’s cotton production, has managed to show positive results. The province reported total arrivals of 301,481 bales, representing a modest 3.05 percent increase or 8,926 bales over the previous year. This growth, however, is not evenly distributed across all districts.

Several districts in Punjab have posted impressive gains over previous year’s levels though with relatively lesser volumes. Dera Ghazi Khan leads the way with an outstanding 218.76 percent increase, bringing in 30,178 more bales than the previous year. Similarly, Rajanpur and Jhang have seen their arrivals more than double, with increases of 211.98 percent and 131.74 percent, respectively. These districts appear to be key drivers of the province’s overall positive performance.

Conversely, a number of other districts in Punjab have faced significant challenges. Both districts of Lodhran and Rahim Yar Khan experienced the most severe setback in cotton production, with a massive 76.51 percent and 75.34 percent respective shortfall in arrivals. These districts are known for Jahangir Khan Tareen’s footprints in the farming sector mostly for wrong reasons, especially when it comes to a decline in cotton production.

Other districts like Sahiwal and Bahawalnagar also reported substantial declines of 33.62 percent and 31.86 percent, respectively, highlighting the variability in crop performance even within the same province.

As far as Sindh’s dramatic decline is concerned, the province’s total arrivals were 292,340 bales, marking a steep 47.01 percent decrease from last year’s figures. This translates to a massive shortfall of 259,362 bales, single-handedly accounting for the majority of the national deficit.

Worryingly, all reporting districts in the province recorded a decline in arrivals. Nawabshah and Mirpur Khas experienced the most pronounced percentage drops, with shortfalls of 77.53 percent and 59.93 percent respectively. Even the major cotton-producing district of Sanghar was not immune, reporting a substantial decline of 44.18 percent or 188,850 bales, which is the single largest deficit from any district in the country. The complete absence of arrivals from districts like Naushero Feroze, Khairpur, and Sukkur further exacerbated the province’s poor performance.

The total number of bales sold to textiles reached 529,154, which constitutes a massive 89.1 percent of the total arrivals this season. The significant drop in both national arrivals and unsold stocks highlights a critical supply-demand imbalance. While Punjab’s performance offers a glimmer of hope on the back of early sowing cotton, it looks insufficient to compensate for the widespread decline in Sindh. This imbalance could necessitate higher imports to meet the country’s textile production targets in the coming months. However, there is still no upward pressure on domestic cotton prices despite low cotton output.