Plan to implement Uraan Pakistan posted on website

ISLAMABAD: The government has silently uploaded the Prime Minister’s Economic Transformation Agenda and Implementation Plan on the PMO website aafter launching the Uraan Pakistan program amid much fanfare, raising many any eyebrow. The plan was uploaded after receiving a major input from the UK-based consultant Stefan Dercon and others.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif launched the Uraan Pakistan program a couple of weeks ago and its report was finalised with the help of consulting firm Keanney after utilizing thousands of dollars.

An official told this reporter on the condition of anonymity that Uraan Pakistan was the development framework, while the PM’s Economic Transformation Plan envisaged the macroeconomic framework focused on fiscal sustainability.

Sources said the PM’s Plan was based on the work done by Stefan Dercon. However, Minister for Planning Ahsan Iqbal convinced the premier to launch Uraan Pakistan prior to the release of the Economic Transformation Agenda.

The PM’s Economic Transformation Agenda has amalgamated both Uraan Pakistan and Home-Grown Economic Plan. When this reporter sent out a question to Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal asking how the PM’s Economic Transformation Agenda was different from Uraan Pakistan and what was the need for launching another program, he responded, “This is not another plan. It is an implementation plan of Uraan Pakistan relating to exports, investment and public finance.”

The Prime Minister Office (PMO) has released the report titled PM’s Economic Transformation Agenda & Implementation Plan comprising 150 pages on the PMO Website. The report states that to prioritize and sequence these reforms, the government set up the ‘Homegrown Economic Reforms Agenda’ Committee in May 2024. This committee was led by Minister for Finance and Revenue Muhammad Aurangzeb and included government officials, private sector experts, and international development specialist Professor Stefan Dercon from the University of Oxford.

The committee was advised by Dr Ijaz Nabi, whose invaluable experience in policy advisory was instrumental in streamlining and prioritizing the reforms agenda, states the Economic Transformation Agenda. It says the plan is about structural reforms to allow for growth through boosting private investment and stimulating exports, while keeping stability.

The core of the plan is to create the conditions to grow fast, without risking running out of dollars to pay for imports. To do so, we need to change the structure of our economy. For that, we need to succeed in three areas where Pakistan has been failing: first, we need to boost considerably private investment in our economy; 16 second, we need to boost exports from Pakistan; and third, we need to ensure that public finances remain stable to make sure growth can persist – this must be growth with stability. How will we do this? Core federal government departments have detailed plans that the prime minister will make sure they get implemented in a timely way. They have in common that they will try to offer a roadmap to a market-based economy, focused on competition and a level playing field across sectors.

Within these detailed plans, the priorities focus on three areas: Stimulating private investment. The measures focus on making it easier to invest and do business in Pakistan, by cutting lots of red tape and regulations; by implementing market-based reforms in the energy sector to make it more secure and affordable including through wheeling charges; and by actively encouraging and facilitating foreign and domestic direct investment, especially from private business.

Stimulating exports, by switching our economy towards export promotion and away from protection for import substitution. We will do this by an ambitious programme of trade reform and complementary action, by bringing down import tariffs by up to a third over the next three years to levels similar to our Asian competitors, within our fiscal means and the commitments made to the IMF; with a transition with tariff reductions that focus on intermediate inputs that will help directly with exports, without increasing other indirect taxation; and by integrating government efforts on tariffs with other measures to drive export growth and diversification such as for agriculture, IT and manufacturing, and actively promote integration in global value chains.

Managing public finance: We will bring government debt down and ensure deficits are under control through boosting tax collection to 13.5 percent of GDP over three years, while intensifying efforts to make sure that taxes spread broadly and equitably across all business and households, to begin to bring down the tax burden per taxpayer; data-analytics based expansion of taxpayers base and stricter compliance efforts; intensifying reform of state-owned enterprise and privatization; and working with provinces on right-sizing the government cutting waste and the total sum spent on the civil service. 17; if this agenda is implemented, we will create the conditions for the following realistic outcomes.

An economy that creates 1 million more jobs per year by FY28. These will be better jobs with higher productivity through more private sector investment. The 13th Five Year Plan (2024-29) prepared by the Ministry of Planning and duly approved by NEC targets 10 million jobs over the next 5 years.

An economy that can grow by 6 percent per year by FY28. These reforms will not just boost the economy by then but also in a way that can grow by 6 or more percent without a balance of payments crisis, after the IMF programme ends.

The 13th Five Year Plan (2024-29) prepared by the Ministry of Planning and duly approved by NEC targets 6% growth by FY2029. Million jobs over the next 5 years. The 5Es framework targets the economy to 3x over the next decade to US$ 1 billion.

An extra US$10bn private investment per year by FY28. This will be achieved through private Pakistani and foreign direct investment, thereby boosting the share of private investment in GDP to above 15 percent, adding one percentage point per year.

The 5Es framework targets a private sector led growth strategy. US$20bn per year extra export earnings by FY28. This will deliver US$60bn more exports by FY28 and increase the export share in GDP to about 15 percent from about 10 percent currently.

The 13th Five Year Plan (2024-29) prepared by the Ministry of Planning and duly approved by NEC targets exports of goods & services to rise to US$63 billion. Public finances under control, with tax revenue in GDP to 13.5 percent by the end of the IMF programme, with a broad and fair tax base and its collection, bias in tax and import tariffs against export-oriented sectors sharply reversed and debt better managed. This is targeted under the 3- year IMF EFF program, with the staff level agreement taking place in July 2024.