Gas transmission at risk as line pack pressure nears 5bcf

ISLAMABAD: The national gas transmission system is again in danger, with line pack pressure nearing 5 billion cubic feet (cf).

This surge is mainly due to a significant reduction in RLNG consumption by the power sector, which dropped to 239 million cubic feet (mmcf) on October 7, 2024, from 577 mmcf on October 5, 2024, a senior official from the Ministry of Energy told The News.

“The recurring buildup of line pressure in the pipeline poses a serious risk of disaster, including the possibility of the main transmission line bursting. Pakistan imports 10 LNG cargoes per month—nine from Qatar and one from ENI—but the power sector’s consumption has consistently fallen short of its monthly demand forecast. In addition to imported gas, local gas is also fed into the pipeline. Due to high gas tariffs, consumption of both imported and local gas has significantly decreased,” the official said.

RLNG supplies the four RLNG-based power plants for electricity generation. This summer, the government limited the use of these plants, as the cost of generating power using RLNG is Rs26 per unit—higher than other options, placing it lower on the Economic Merit Order List. The Power Division stated that operating RLNG power plants at maximum capacity would drive up the overall electricity price. As a result, the sector prioritises cheaper power sources, such as plants using local gas or coal, as well as nuclear and hydropower plants, which have lower tariffs.

“Now, in October, with reduced electricity demand due to decreasing air conditioner usage, particularly in Upper Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), and northern parts of the country, there is a further decline in RLNG usage,” the official added.This situation has created a potential threat to the country’s main gas transmission system. To mitigate the risk, the government is considering requesting Qatar to defer some LNG cargoes or allow Pakistan to sell them to ease line pack pressure.

However, no provisions for such adjustments exist in the agreements with Qatar. According to the latest line pack data from October 7, 2024, pressure in the main pipeline has risen to 4.956 bcf. If the pressure exceeds 5 bcf, it seriously threatens the system.

The power sector has reduced RLNG off-take to 239 mmcf, down from 412 mmcf on Sunday. In SNGPL’s network, the fertiliser sector’s consumption stood at 89 mmcf, while indigenous gas input remained at 652 mmcf.

Gas supply from the Dakhni field has been suspended since October 1, 2024, due to the Annual Turnaround (ATA) of their plant, expected to last 30 days. Additionally, gas input from the Adhi field dropped to 26 mmcf on October 6, 2024, due to a 7-day ATA. The current gas input rate stands at 27 mmcfd. On Monday, the system received 812 mmcf of RLNG, of which 80 mmcf was retained by Sui Southern. Average consumption in the industrial sector (both export and non-export) on Monday was 310 mmcfd. The Gambat gas processing plant will remain on ATA until October 10, 2024. Currently, SSGC is facing a gas shortfall of 55 mmcfd.